| 基于LEAP模型的长三角某市碳达峰情景 |
| 摘要点击 2784 全文点击 718 投稿时间：2023-01-20 修订日期：2023-04-02 |
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| 中文关键词 碳达峰 LEAP模型 情景分析 X市 碳排放 |
| 英文关键词 carbon emission peaks LEAP model scenario analysis X City carbon emission |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于LEAP模型,构建了适用于X市的LEAP-X分部门测算模型,设置了基准情景、低碳情景、强化低碳情景和2023年达峰情景等4种碳排放达峰情景.测算分析结果表明,仅在强化低碳情景与2023年达峰情景下可以实现2030年前碳达峰目标,强化低碳情景达峰时间约在2025年但实际可能推迟,峰值约为1.7亿t.工业是碳排放量最大部门,石化行业是工业中占比最大行业,不同情景下其占比始终保持在30%左右,发电与钢铁行业占比逐年降低,净调入电力逐渐增加.产业结构优化、能源结构调整是X市碳达峰主要驱动因素.强化低碳情景下单位GDP碳排放量在2030年将较2020年下降41%左右. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the LEAP model framework, a LEAP-X sub-sector calculation model suitable for X City was constructed in this study. Four scenarios including a baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario, enhanced low-carbon scenario, and peak in 2023 scenario were set up to predict and analyze the carbon emission situation. The calculation and analysis results showed that it could achieve the carbon peak before 2030 only under the enhanced low-carbon scenario and peak in 2023 scenario. The peak year of the enhanced low-carbon scenario was around 2025 with a peak carbon emission of approximately 170 million tons, but the peak time may actually be delayed. Industry was the largest sector of carbon emissions, and the petrochemical industry was the largest portion of industry, the proportion of which was always maintained at approximately 30% under different scenarios. However, the proportion of power generation and steel industry decreased annually, whereas the proportion of the net imported power gradually increased. Industrial structure optimization and energy structure adjustment were the main driving factors of carbon peak in X City. Carbon emissions per unit of GDP will fall by approximately 41% in 2030 compared with that in 2020 under the enhanced low-carbon scenario. |
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