| “双碳”背景下北京市农业温室气体排放评估及“十四五”时期减排潜力预测 |
| 摘要点击 2608 全文点击 934 投稿时间：2022-10-20 修订日期：2022-12-19 |
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| 中文关键词 双碳 农业 温室气体 (GHG) 排放 减排潜力 |
| 英文关键词 carbon peak and neutrality agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 杨帆 | 北京市生态环境保护科学研究院, 北京 100037
国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心, 北京 100037 | yangfan@cee.cn | | 韩玉花 | 北京市生态环境保护科学研究院, 北京 100037
国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心, 北京 100037 | hanyuhua@cee.cn | | 隗潇 | 北京市生态环境保护科学研究院, 北京 100037
国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心, 北京 100037 | | | 毕海涛 | 北京市生态环境保护科学研究院, 北京 100037
国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心, 北京 100037 | | | 王晓亚 | 北京市生态环境保护科学研究院, 北京 100037
国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心, 北京 100037 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为实现"双碳"目标，北京市相关规划对"十四五"时期农业领域温室气体排放控制提出严格要求.通过收集北京市农业活动水平数据，计算和筛选排放因子，评估北京市2020年农业温室气体排放量，分析排放特征；结合北京市自然条件和种养模式，筛选适宜的减排措施，预测"十四五"时期温室气体减排潜力及分布，分析优化措施减排效果，并提出相关政策建议.结果表明，北京市2020年农业温室气体排放总量（以CO2-eq计，下同）为45.6万t，以动物肠道发酵和动物粪便管理排放为主，贡献率分别为50.7%和26.7%，主要集中在顺义区、密云区、延庆区等畜禽养殖规模较大的郊区；预测"十四五"期间，北京市农业温室气体减排潜力为10.7万t.动物肠道发酵为减排潜力最大的排放源（6.0万t），其次为动物粪便管理（3.7万t）；CH4的减排潜力大于N2 O；减排潜力主要分布在密云区、顺义区、延庆区、房山区和通州区等畜禽养殖规模较大的郊区；调整饲料结构和优化粪便管理方式为效果最明显的减排措施. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To achieve the goal of "carbon peak and neutrality," the strict requirements for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions control in the agricultural sector were recommended in relevant plans for Beijing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Through collecting agricultural activity data and calculating and screening the emission factors, the amount and emission characteristics of agricultural GHG emissions in Beijing in 2020 were estimated and set as the baseline condition. On this basis, the GHG emissions in 2025 with optimized measurements implemented, which were selected in combination with the natural conditions and planting-breeding mode of Beijing, were set as the reduction condition. The emission reduction potential and its distribution during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period were predicted simultaneously. Meanwhile, the reduction effects on the GHG emissions of optimized measurements were evaluated. In addition, relevant policy recommendations on GHG reduction were proposed accordingly. The results revealed that the total agricultural GHG emissions in Beijing were estimated to be 456000 t (CO2-eq) in 2020, primarily from sources of animal intestinal fermentation and manure management, with contribution rates of 50.7% and 26.7%, respectively. Spatially, it was mainly distributed in districts with large livestock and poultry breeding scales, such as Shunyi District, Miyun District, and Yanqing District, etc. It was predicted that in 2025, the total agricultural GHG emissions would be 349000 t (CO2-eq), and the emission reduction potential in the 14th Five-Year Plan period would be 107000 t (CO2-eq). Animal intestinal fermentation would be the emission source with the largest reduction potential (60000 tons, CO2-eq), followed by the emission source of animal manure management (37000 tons, CO2-eq). Adjusting fodder composition and optimizing manure management were analyzed to be the most effective optimized measurements for agricultural GHG emission reduction. Moreover, the emission reduction potential of CH4 would be greater than that of N2O. The emission reduction potential would be mainly distributed in Miyun District, Shunyi District, Yanqing District, Fangshan District, Tongzhou District, and other suburbs with large livestock and poultry breeding scales, accounting for more than 10% of the total emission reduction potential for each. These regions with large emission reduction potential should be prioritized and then the assessments should be extended to the whole city. The measurements were recommended as follows:① the research and promotion of technologies such as fodder optimization and the efficient treatment of manure should be strengthened, ② the scope of the combination of planting and breeding model should be expanded to promote the development of circular agriculture, and ③ relevant standards, guidelines, and specifications for green and low-carbon agriculture should be formulated, and the regulatory and policy system for synergy reduction of agricultural pollution and GHG should be developed. |
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