| 长株潭城市群地类转移的碳传导效应与预测 |
| 摘要点击 1483 全文点击 385 投稿时间：2022-01-22 修订日期：2022-04-06 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 碳源/汇 碳传导效应 马尔科夫预测 长株潭城市群 |
| 英文关键词 land use carbon source/sink carbon conduction effect Markov model Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用碳排放是影响城市碳达峰、碳中和实现的重要因素.基于土地利用遥感数据和碳排放估算模型，得到长株潭城市群的土地利用碳排放量，借助转移矩阵分析了长株潭城市群土地利用转移的碳传导效应.此外，采用马尔科夫模型预测2030年和2060年的长株潭土地利用碳排放量.结果表明：①1995~2018年长株潭城市群土地利用净碳排放从810.84×104 t增加到2015.41×104 t，碳源/汇比整体呈上升趋势.其中，建设用地是主要的碳排放源，林草地是主要的碳汇.②不同时段地类转移引致的碳传导最终均表现为净碳排放，在时间上呈现先增加后减少的态势.其中以林地和耕地向建设用地转移产生的碳传导最为显著，涉及草地、水域和未利用地的碳传导效应微弱.③预测结果表明，长株潭城市群的土地利用碳排放预测量处于持续上涨态势，如若仍按目前趋势发展，则如期实现"双碳目标"存在难度.政府需要在加强林地的碳吸收能力以提升生态系统碳汇增量和遏制建设用地的无序扩张以减少碳源两方面着力，加快长株潭城市群的绿色低碳建设.上述结果为长株潭城市群开展低碳导向的城市土地利用调控提供了重要参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land use carbon emissions are an important factor affecting regional carbon peaks and carbon neutralization. Based on land use remote-sensing data and a carbon emission estimation model, the land use carbon emission of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration was obtained, and the carbon conduction effect of land use transfer in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration was analyzed using a transfer matrix. In addition, a Markov model was used to predict the land use carbon emissions of the study area in 2030 and 2060. The results showed that:① from 1995 to 2018, the net carbon emission from land use of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration increased from 810.84×104 t to 2015.41×104 t, and the carbon source/sink ratio showed an upward trend as a whole. Built-up land was the main carbon emission source, and forest and grassland were the main carbon sink. ② The carbon conduction caused by land type transfer in different periods finally showed net carbon emissions, which increased first and then decreased. The carbon transfers from forest and cropland to built-up land were the most significant, whereas the carbon transfer effect involving grassland, water, and unused land was weak. ③ The prediction results showed that the land use carbon emission prediction of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration was in a continuous upward trend. If the current trend is allowed to continue, it will be difficult to achieve the "double carbon goal" on schedule. Therefore, the government needs to speed up the green and low-carbon construction of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration by strengthening the carbon absorption capacity of the forest to improve the ecosystem carbon sink increment and by curbing the disorderly expansion of built-up land to reduce carbon sources. The above results provide an important reference for the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration to carry out low-carbon oriented urban land use regulation. |
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