| 京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市结构性调整政策的CO2协同减排效益评估 |
| 摘要点击 2972 全文点击 988 投稿时间：2021-11-22 修订日期：2022-02-28 |
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| 中文关键词 结构性调整政策 碳减排 协同效应 "2+26"城市 GAINS-JJJ模型 |
| 英文关键词 structural adjustment measures carbon mitigation co-effect "2+26" cities GAINS-JJJ model |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》（"三年行动计划"）明确提出，产业结构调整、能源结构调整、交通结构调整和用地结构调整是大幅减少大气污染物和CO2排放的重要抓手，这种协同效应非常明显，但在城市群层面还未被量化研究.为此，采用京津冀温室气体-空气污染物协同控制综合评估模型（GAINS-JJJ），构建了2017年京津冀及周边地区"2+26"城市群基础排放清单，定量分析了"三年行动计划"的实施带来的CO2和主要大气污染物的排放变化情况.结果表明，与2017年相比，2020年政策情景下"2+26"城市的CO2、一次PM2.5、SO2、NOx和NH3的减排量分别为29.1 Mt （相当于2017年排放量的2%）、203.8（21%）、281.8（27%）、485.5（17%）和34.3 kt （3%），排放量较大的城市或部门都实现了较为明显的减排.碳协同减排效益结果显示，产业结构调整的一系列重大举措（淘汰落后产能、工业锅炉升级改造和散乱污企业综合整治等）取得了良好的CO2和大气污染物协同减排效应，而不同污染物中NOx的碳协同减排效应最高. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Battle states that structural adjustments of industrial, energy, transportation, and land use are important to significantly reduce CO2 and air pollutant emissions. This co-effect is evident but has not been quantified at the city-cluster level. This study developed an emission inventory for the "2+26" cities of the Jing-Jin-Ji region and its surroundings and quantitatively analyzed the impacts of measures in the Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Battle on the emissions of CO2 and major air pollutants using Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies in the "2+26" cities model (GAINS-JJJ). The results showed that in the "2+26" cities, the emission reductions in CO2, primary PM2.5, SO2, NOx, and NH3 under policy scenario 2020 were 29.1 Mt (equivalent to 2% of the emissions in 2017), 203.8 (21%), 281.8 (27%), 485.5 (17%), and 34.3 kt (3%), respectively, relative to 2017. In terms of the cities or sectors, the higher the pollutant emissions, the higher the reduction achieved. The CO2 mitigation co-effect results showed that industrial adjustment measures, such as eliminating backward production capacity, upgrades on industrial boilers, and phasing out small and polluting factories, contributed the most to the co-effect of CO2 emission reduction, whereas NOx presented the highest co-effects, with CO2 among the different air pollutants. |
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