| 两种模式下中国未来发电行业发展情景及其环境效益分析 |
| 摘要点击 2751 全文点击 823 投稿时间：2021-10-19 修订日期：2021-11-26 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 火力发电 可再生能源发电 碳达峰 碳中和 环境效益 |
| 英文关键词 thermal power generation renewable energy power generation carbon peak carbon neutralization environmental benefits |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 刘春景 | 华北电力大学环境科学与工程系, 河北省燃煤电站烟气多污染物协同控制重点实验室, 保定 071003 | lcj725@126.com | | 吕建燚 | 华北电力大学环境科学与工程系, 河北省燃煤电站烟气多污染物协同控制重点实验室, 保定 071003 | lujianyi@tsinghua.org.cn | | 赵汶畅 | 华北电力大学环境科学与工程系, 河北省燃煤电站烟气多污染物协同控制重点实验室, 保定 071003 | | | 徐卿 | 华北电力大学环境科学与工程系, 河北省燃煤电站烟气多污染物协同控制重点实验室, 保定 071003 | | | 金玉佳 | 华北电力大学环境科学与工程系, 河北省燃煤电站烟气多污染物协同控制重点实验室, 保定 071003 | |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 为了研究"双碳"目标模式下我国发电行业发展前景及带来的环境效益，建立了饱和"S"状灰色模型计算了按照旧有发电模式——非"双碳"模式下2021~2060年发电行业装机容量和发电量，并基于"中国2030年能源电力发展规划研究及2060年展望报告"计算获得了"双碳"模式下2021~2060年发电行业装机容量和发电量，对比研究了两种模式下中国未来发电行业的发展情景.通过物料衡算法和火电行业排放绩效构建了CO2、SO2、NOx、PM、PM10和PM2.5的排放因子以及减排因子，定义了用于衡量污染物减排量的4种环境效益A1~A4.结果表明，在"双碳"模式下，火电机组将于2026年实现碳达峰，之后年均降低0.28亿kW，同时要求可再生能源发电机组于2020年后年均增加1.54亿kW以实现碳中和.与非"双碳"模式相比，"双碳"模式下火力发电装机容量将大幅度减少，可再生能源发电装机容量将大量增加，由此产生巨大的环境效益A1和A2.未来40年CO2、SO2、NOx、PM、PM10和PM2.5的火力发电污染物累积减排量A1分别为6.64×1010、1.54×107、1.55×107、3.18×106、1.71×106和2.23×105 t，可再生能源发电污染物累积减排量A2分别为5.77×1010、1.64×107、1.42×107、2.86×106、1.54×106和2×105 t."双碳"模式下，与燃煤发电相比，由可再生能源发电和核电的相对清洁性产生的环境效益A3和A4表明，未来40年CO2、SO2、NOx、PM、PM10和PM2.5的清洁能源发电累计减排量（A3+A4）分别为3.014×1011、7.292×107、7.119×107、1.454×107、7.827×106和1.018×106 t. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In order to study the impact of the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode on future power generation and the environment in China, a Verhulst gray model was established to predict the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode. In addition, based on the "China 2030 Energy and Power Development Planning Research and 2060 Outlook Report," the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode was obtained, and the development scenarios of the future power generation industry in China under two models were compared and studied. The emission factors and emission reduction factors of CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, PM10, and PM2.5 were constructed through the conservation of elements and the generating performance standard, and then four environmental benefits A1-A4 were defined. The results showed that the installed capacity of thermal power will reach the carbon peak in 2026 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode. To achieve the carbon neutralization, the installed capacity of thermal power will be reduced by an average of 28 million kilowatts per year after 2026, and the installed capacity of renewable energy generated is required to increase by 154 million kilowatts per year after 2020. Compared with that in the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode, the installed capacity of thermal power generation will be greatly reduced, and the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation will be greatly increased under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, resulting in huge A1 and A2 environmental benefits. In the next four decades, the cumulative emission reductions in CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, PM10, and PM2.5 thermal power generation A1 are predicted to be 6.64×1010 tons, 1.54×107 tons, 1.55×107 tons, 3.18×106 tons, 1.71×106tons, and 2.23×105 tons, respectively. The cumulative emission reductions of renewable energy power generation A2 will be 5.77×1010 tons, 1.64×107 tons, 1.42×107 tons, 2.86×106 tons, 1.54×106 tons, and 2×105 t tons, respectively. Under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, compared with those from coal-fired power generation, the environmental benefits A3 and A4 produced by the relative cleanliness of renewable energy and nuclear power indicated that the cumulative emission reductions (A3+A4) in clean energy power generation of CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, PM10, and PM2.5 in the next four decades will be 3.014×1011 tons, 7.292×107 tons, 7.119×107 tons, 1.454×107 tons, 7.827×106tons, and 1.018×106 tons, respectively. |
|
|
|
