| 中国居民饮用水镉暴露非致癌风险的年龄分层权重 |
| 摘要点击 1775 全文点击 657 投稿时间：2021-08-12 修订日期：2021-08-31 |
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| 中文关键词 镉(Cd) 饮用水 暴露参数 健康风险评价 蒙特卡洛模拟 |
| 英文关键词 cadmium(Cd) drinking water exposure parameters health risk assessment Monte Carlo simulation |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 饮水是人体镉（Cd）暴露的重要途径，为了定量表征中国居民饮用水镉暴露风险，通过文献调研收集我国3类主要饮用水类型的镉浓度数据.利用回归模型获得不同年龄段人群饮水暴露参数分布模式.基于概率方法评价不同水体和不同人群由于饮用水镉暴露造成的非致癌风险.结果发现，3种类型水体镉浓度存在显著差异.自来水、未处理的地下水和地表水源水的ρ（Cd）几何均值分别为（0.48±0.78）、（1.07±1.82）和（1.04±1.38）μg·L-1.风险评估结果表明，各个年龄段和3类水体的风险商中位数都远小于1.与美国环保署推荐的暴露剂量阈值比较，未处理的地表水源水、地下水和自来水的超过阈值的概率分别为2.4%、1.3%和1.0%.其中，6~8岁的儿童具有最高的镉日均摄入剂量，15~17岁年龄组人群摄入量最低.通过年龄分层权重后的蒙特卡洛模拟发现，在超过暴露阈值的人群中，18~44岁的成年人占所有超限人数的50.8%.综上所述，我国居民的饮用水镉暴露引发的非致癌风险较低.但特殊群体仍存在超过暴露剂量阈值的概率，需要进一步加强饮用水镉污染控制以降低镉暴露引发的健康风险和保障饮水安全. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Drinking water is an important cadmium (Cd) exposure pathway for residents in China. In order to quantitatively characterize the risk of cadmium exposure through drinking water, the Cd concentrations of three main drinking water types in China were collected via systematic literature review. The probability distribution of the exposure parameters was estimated using regression models. The non-carcinogenic risk of cadmium exposure to residents through drinking water was evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that significant differences were found among Cd contents in the three water types. The geometric mean of ρ(Cd) in tap water, untreated underground water, and surface water were (0.48±0.78), (1.07±1.82), and (1.04±1.38) μg·L-1, respectively. The non-carcinogenic risk assessment showed that the median of hazard quotients in all age groups and in the three water types were found to be less than 1. Compared with the exposure dose threshold recommended by the US EPA, the probabilities exceeding the threshold of underground water, surface source water, and tap water were 2.4%, 1.3%, and 1.0%, respectively. Children aged 6-8 had the greatest daily average dose of Cd, and the least exposure dose was found in the 15-17 age group. The result of Monte Carlo simulation based on age-stratification weight showed that people 18-44 years old accounted for 50.8% of the total number of people who exceeded the exposure threshold. In summary, the probability of noncarcinogenic risk caused by Cd exposure through drinking water of Chinese residents was relatively low. However, people in some sub-groups still had a relatively high probability of exceeding the exposure dose threshold. It is necessary to further strengthen the control of cadmium pollution in drinking water in order to reduce the health risk caused by cadmium exposure and ensure drinking water safety. |
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