| 2015~2020年海南省臭氧时空变化及其成因分析 |
| 摘要点击 4376 全文点击 1312 投稿时间：2021-05-11 修订日期：2021-07-16 |
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| 中文关键词 臭氧(O3) 前体物 气象因子 经验正交函数分解(EOF) 海南省 |
| 英文关键词 ozone (O3) precursors meteorological factor empirical orthogonal function (EOF) Hainan Province |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于2015~2020年海南省32个大气环境监测站监测数据，以及同期的常规气象观测资料，采用经验正交函数分解方法（EOF）、气候倾向率和趋势系数分析等方法，探讨了海南省O3-8h（最大8 h平均）时空分布特征，及其与前体物和气象因子的关系.结果表明，海南省ρ（O3-8h）呈北部和西部偏高，中部、东部和南部偏低的分布特征，最高值出现在东方市（91.5 μg·m-3）.2015~2020年共有12个市县ρ（O3-8h）呈下降趋势，其中有6个市县达到了95%的信度检验.ρ（O3-8h）季节变化特征明显，秋季最高，春季和冬季次之，夏季最低.秋季ρ（O3-8h）表现为上升趋势，而其余三季为下降趋势.EOF分解的前两个特征向量场的累积方差为72.58%，能够较好地描述ρ（O3-8h）的主要分布特征.第一模态体现了ρ（O3-8h）变化的一致性，第二模态体现了地区性差异.ρ（O3-8h）的变化与前体物和气象因子有较好的相关关系，其中与ρ（NO2）、降水量、日照时数、平均气温、平均风速、大气压和总辐射的相关系数通过了99%的信度检验.多元线性回归结果表明，回归的ρ（O3-8h）与观测得到的ρ（O3-8h）有较好的一致性，二者的相关系数为0.853，通过了99.9%的信度检验.回归值对实测值方差的解释达到了0.72. |
| 英文摘要 |
| This study investigated temporal and spatial variations in O3-8h (defined as the maximum 8 h average result) in Hainan Province from 2015 to 2020 and further analyzed its relationships with precursors and meteorological factors based on a dataset of observations from 32 environmental monitoring stations in Hainan. Basic statistical methods, including the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), climatic tendency rate, and climatic trend coefficient analysis, were used here. The results showed that ρ(O3-8h) was higher in northern and western Hainan than that in other regions, with the maximum value occurring in Dongfang City (91.5 μg·m-3). Twelve cities and counties experienced a downward trend from 2015 to 2020, and six cities and counties reached a 95% confidence level. The variation in ρ(O3-8h) in Hainan Province demonstrated remarkable seasonal changes, which were the largest in the autumn, spring, and winter followed by the smallest in the summer, exhibiting a clear declining trend in all seasons except autumn. In addition, the cumulative variance of the first two eigenvector fields decomposed by EOF was 72.58%, which could well describe the distributed characteristics of ρ(O3-8h) in Hainan Province. The first mode reflected the consistency of ρ(O3-8h) variation, and the second mode reflected regional differences. Meanwhile, the change in ρ(O3-8h) had a good correlation with the precursors and meteorological factors. Among them, the correlation coefficients between ρ(O3-8h) and ρ(NO2), precipitation, sunshine duration, average temperature, average wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and total radiation passed the 99% confidence test. The results of multiple linear regression showed that the variation in regressed ρ(O3-8h) was consistent with the observed ρ(O3-8h), and the correlation coefficient between them was 0.853, which passed the 99.9% confidence test. The regression value explained 0.72 variance of the observed value. |
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