| 基于模型研究质量评价的SWAT模型参数取值特征分析 |
| 摘要点击 2691 全文点击 658 投稿时间：2020-10-28 修订日期：2020-11-25 |
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| 中文关键词 SWAT模型 指标体系 高可信度文献 参数取值 地理区域 置信区间 |
| 英文关键词 SWAT model indicator system highly credible literature parameter value geographic region confidence interval |
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| 中文摘要 |
| SWAT模型是目前我国应用最为广泛的流域水环境模型之一.由于该模型拥有分布式参数并且基于美国环境特征建立，确定合理的和符合我国流域环境特征的参数取值是模型应用中的关键工作.有研究通过总结现有报告的参数取值，为模型本地化应用提供参数取值参考，但这些研究忽略了其中SWAT模型研究质量之间的差异，也未考虑参数取值的非均匀性以及极端值的影响，因而研究结果的实用性不佳.建立了综合考虑模型建立、参数率定和验证、模拟效果的SWAT模型研究质量评价指标体系，对中国知网收录的2015~2017年发表的428篇SWAT模型研究文献开展定量评价并筛选高可信度文献.基于高可信度文献报告的SWAT模型参数取值，分析了15个涉及水文、泥沙和水质过程模拟的参数取值特征，包括参数取值分布特征及其在不同地理区域间的差异，以及参数率定值与默认值的偏差等.研究表明，在筛选得到的129篇高可信度文献中，SWAT模型应用整体上更加规范，且具有较好的区域代表性；15个模型参数在我国流域的取值分布具有正偏态、负偏态等不同特征，其中4个参数在我国不同地理区域的取值分布存在显著差异，12个参数在我国流域的取值明显偏离默认值.基于模型参数取值特征，以置信区间的形式给出了SWAT模型在我国本地化应用的参数取值建议，并针对不同数据条件下的模型应用提出了参数取值建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is currently one of the most widely used watershed models in China. Since the model has been developed with distributed parameters and is customized to satisfy the environmental characteristics of the U.S.A., determining appropriate parameter values that reflect local features for model application in China is crucial. Some studies have proposed parameter values for the SWAT model by summarizing reported values in the literature; however, these studies neither differentiate the literature with respect to its quality nor consider non-uniformity in parameter values and the impact of extreme values. To address this, an indicator system for assessing the quality of SWAT model research was established, taking into account the process of model development, parameter calibration, and model validation as well as model performance. This screening approach was applied to a total of 428 journal articles on SWAT model research published between 2015 and 2017 were retrieved from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database. The reported values of 15 model parameters involved in hydrology and sediment and nutrient simulation were extracted from highly credible articles and analysed in terms of statistical distributions, differences among geographic regions, and discrepancies between calibrated and default values. Results showed that the 129 highly credible journal articles screened generally followed good modelling practice and consisted of case studies from different regions across China. The statistical distributions of the 15 model parameters derived from the SWAT model studies exhibited a range of features including positive and negative skewness, and those of 4 parameters showed significant differences among regions where the watersheds are located. Furthermore, the calibrated values of 12 out of 15 parameters were significantly different from their default values. Considering the statistical characteristics of these model parameters, recommended parameter values for SWAT model application in China are proposed in the form of confidence intervals, and specific suggestions are also provided based on data availability. |
