| 多时间尺度HSPF模型参数不确定性研究 |
| 摘要点击 1991 全文点击 851 投稿时间：2017-10-12 修订日期：2017-11-09 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 HSPF模型 水文模拟 不确定性 多时间尺度 潮河流域 |
| 英文关键词 HSPF model hydrological simulation uncertainty multiple temporal scales Chaohe River watershed |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 模型参数的不确定性是水文模型应用研究领域的重点与难点.本研究以密云水库东北部的潮河流域为例，构建了潮河流域HSPF水文模型，并采用1998~2010年逐月地表径流量数据对模型参数进行校准与验证，并结合GLUE算法分析了模型参数的敏感性和不确定性.结果表明：①经过参数调整，HSPF模型径流模拟取得了较好的效果，率定期和验证期的纳什系数分别为0.84和0.55；②可将影响HSPF模型的参数分为3类，即全局敏感性参数（LZSN、INFILT、IRC和AGWRC）、局部敏感性参数（UZSN）和不敏感参数（DEEPFR、BASETP、AGWEPT、INTFW和CEPSC）；③不同敏感性参数间存在复杂的相关关系，参数组合（LZSN与INFILT）、（INFILT与UZSN）和（UZSN与AGWRC）间均呈极显著负相关关系；（LZSN与UZSN）和（UZSN与AGWRC）呈极显著正相关；④HSPF模型参数存在大量复杂的"异参同效"现象，证实影响模拟结果优劣的是参数组合而非某一参数值；⑤模型不确定性发现，模型预测的不确定性范围与降雨量密切相关，即降雨量越大，模型预报的不确定性就越大，反之亦然；⑥不同时间尺度下HSPF模型的模拟效果总体较好，但是也存在一定差异性，年尺度、季节尺度和月尺度下不确定性范围分别包含了81.80%、78.70%和80.56%的观测值，即年尺度效果略优于月尺度和季节尺度；该研究结果可为HSPF模型在相似区域应用与参数本土化提供科学参考和借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Various hydrological models have been applied to the management of water resources and water quality. However, parameter uncertainty is of perpetual interest in the application of hydrological models. In this context, the HSPF model was constructed and calibrated using monthly observed stream data from 1998 to 2010 in the Chaohe River watershed, northeast of Beijing. Specifically, the sensitivity and uncertainty of the model parameters were investigated by the GLUE algorithm with the PEST platform. The major results were illustrated as follows:① the hydrological simulation shows good performance with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.84 and 0.55 in the period of calibration and validation, respectively; ② the parameters were divided into three categories:global sensitive parameters (LZSN, INFILT, IRC, and AGWRC), regional sensitive parameters (UZSN), and non-sensitive parameters (DEEPFR, BASETP, AGWEPT, INTFW, and CEPSC); ③ strong correlations were detected within the sensitive parameters, which further involved significant negative correlations (LZSN~INFILT, INFILT~UZSN, and UZSN~AGWRC) and a positive correlation (LZSN~UZSN) and (UZSN~AGWRC); ④ the equifinality for different parameters was found in the HSPF model, indicating that parameter sets determine the simulation performance rather than individual parameters; ⑤ among various external factors, precipitation was identified as the most important condition for simulation uncertainty; and ⑥ the temporal difference in simulation performance was considered using annual, seasonal, and monthly scales with simulation precisions of 81.80%, 78.70%, and 80.56%, implying that the annual scale might be the optimal simulation period with higher accuracy. This research result is useful for the application and localization of the HSPF model. |
|
|
|
