| 基于不确定性分析的太湖水体多环芳烃的生态风险评价 |
| 摘要点击 2685 全文点击 1248 投稿时间：2011-05-17 修订日期：2011-07-09 |
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| 中文关键词 太湖 水环境 多环芳烃 生态风险评价 不确定性分析 |
| 英文关键词 Taihu Lake aquatic environment polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon ecological risk assessment uncertainty analysis |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 郭广慧 | 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州 510640
中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049
中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012
中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室,北京 100012 | kellyggh@163.com | | 吴丰昌 | 中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012
中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室,北京 100012 | wufengchang@vip.skleg.cn | | 何宏平 | 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州 510640 | | | 冯承莲 | 中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012
中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室,北京 100012 | | | 张瑞卿 | 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州 510640
中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049
中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012
中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室,北京 100012 | | | 李会仙 | 中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012
中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室,北京 100012 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 利用概率法[蒙特卡罗抽样(monte carlo sampling, MCS)和拉丁超立方抽样(latin hypercube sampling, LHS)]、区间分析法、模糊数法和方差传递等不确定性处理方法,分析了太湖水体ΣPAH8生态风险的不确定性,量化了不确定性因素影响的太湖水体ΣPAH8的生态风险.结果表明,基于概率理论的MCS和LHS模拟结果为太湖水体ΣPAH8危害商值的概率分布,危害商值的平均值分别为0.37和0.35, 90%的置信区间分别为(0.00018, 0.89)和(0.00017, 0.92),超过临界值1的概率分别为9.71%和9.68%,敏感性分析表明毒性数据对ΣPAH8商值概率分布的影响较大; 区间分析结果表明太湖水体ΣPAH8危害商值范围为0.00017~0.99; 模糊数计算得到可信度为0.9对应的太湖水体ΣPAH8危害商值的区间值为(0.0015, 0.0163); 方差传递结果表明太湖水体ΣPAH8的危害商值在90%置信水平下的置信区间为(0.00016, 0.88),各种不确定性分析均表明PAHs的生态风险较低.通过各种方法比较,基于概率理论的不确定性处理技术更适合太湖水体PAHs的生态风险评价,可为水体有机污染物的风险管理和控制提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of ΣPAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of ΣPAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.00018-0.89 and 0.00017-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of ΣPAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.00017 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.0015, 0.0163) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.00016, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of ΣPAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of ΣPAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water. |
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