| 基于“压力-状态-响应”模型的黑龙江省生态安全评价研究 |
| 摘要点击 1849 全文点击 1427 投稿时间：2007-05-07 修订日期：2007-07-13 |
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| 中文关键词 压力-状态-响应模型 生态安全度 层次分析法 指标权重 预测 黑龙江省 |
| 英文关键词 pressure-state-response (P-S-R) model ecological security index (ESI) analytical hierarchy process (AHP) index weight forecast Heilongjiang Province |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 采用“压力-状态-响应”模型,选取27项指标,构建黑龙江省生态安全评价指标体系.利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,运用生态安全度计算模型,对2000～2005年黑龙江省生态安全状况进行分级评价;应用灰色动态模型,预测黑龙江省2006～2010年生态安全的发展趋势.计算结果表明,2000年黑龙江省处于生态安全Ⅴ级;2005年黑龙江省处于生态安全Ⅲ级,生态安全有所提高.预测得到,2006年黑龙江省为生态安全Ⅲ级,2007～2009年均为生态安全Ⅱ级,2010年达到生态安全Ⅰ级,即理想安全.由此可见,黑龙江省生态安全呈现上升的发展趋势;自2000年黑龙江省开展生态省建设以来,生态环境质量得到了明显改善.通过推动生态省建设等有效手段,可以最终实现黑龙江省生态安全持续和健康发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The ecological security index (ESI) system including 27 indices for Heilongjiang Province was built up with the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) model. The weights of the indices were determined by analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the ecological security status classification was evaluated by the ESI model for the years of 2000-2005. Then the development trend of ecological security from 2006 to 2010 was forecasted with the grey dynamic model. The results showed that the ecological security ranked the Ⅴ grade in 2000 and the Ⅲ grade in 2005, indicating the increase of ecological security. The forecasting results show that the ecological security will be the Ⅲ grade for 2006, the Ⅱ grade for 2007-2009, and the Ⅰ grade for 2010 (ideal security). Thus it can be seen that the ecological security is ascending year by year, and the ecological environment quality is obviously improved with the implementation of eco-province construction since 2000. Through the effective facilitation of eco-province construction etc., the sustainable and healthy development of ecological security will be finally realized in Heilongjiang Province. |
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