| 我国城市水环境产业发展规模和市场容量的SD模型 |
| 摘要点击 2387 全文点击 2429 投稿时间：2001-05-09 修订日期：2001-08-30 |
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| 中文关键词 水环境产业 SD模型 发展规模 市场容量 市场结构 |
| 英文关键词 urban water environmental infrastructure system dynamic future market capacity market structure |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 采用SD方法,建立了城市水环境产业与人口、经济、资源和环境之间相互关系的动态、非线性模型(SDMUWEIC),在不确定分析基础上,预测了未来城市水环境产业的发展规模、市场容量和市场结构.表明城市水环境产业将为建筑、通用机械设备和水处理专用设备等提供广阔的市场,从而促进消费,带动国民经济其他行业的发展.本文还进一步预测了不同城市人口比例和水价增长速度,对城市水环境产业发展的影响. |
| 英文摘要 |
| With the application of system dynamics,a dynamic, nonlinear model (SDMUWEIC) was developed in this paper in order to reflect the relationships of population, economic, resources and environment. Through a systematic procedure of model validation and uncertainty analysis, the model was applied for predicting and analyzing the future market capacity and constituents of urban water infrastructure. It illustrated the volumes and trends of potential capital market in construction, general mechanical equipments and water treatment instruments as well as their relevant influencing factors including water pricing and urbanization rate. Several different scenarios were further under test to reveal the sensitivity of different uncertain components. |
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