| 基于远景目标的中国钢铁行业减排驱动因素及技术效应分解 |
| 摘要点击 346 全文点击 14 投稿时间：2025-07-24 修订日期：2025-10-26 |
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| 中文关键词 钢铁行业 LMDI模型 驱动因素 LEAP模型 情景分析 技术效应分解 |
| 英文关键词 steel industry LMDI model driving factor LEAP model scenario analysis research effect decomposition |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507326 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 作为中国第二大碳排放行业，为钢铁行业寻找碳减排措施对于推动我国实现“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标、促进经济高质量协同发展具有重要的基础性作用. 首先基于2000~2022年中国钢铁行业相关统计数据，构建LMDI模型来识别影响中国钢铁行业的关键因素，再以2020年为基准年，2035年为目标年，构建LEAP模型，分析2020~2035年中国钢铁行业不同情景下的全流程CO2排放特征. 结果表明：①能源结构与生产规模是驱动我国钢铁行业碳排放持续增长的主要促进因素，而能源强度与碳排放系数的改善对碳排放增长具有一定的抑制作用；②基准情景下钢铁行业CO2排放量在2025年达到峰值2 010 Mt，技术减排情景下钢铁行业CO2排放量在2025年达到峰值1 814 Mt，而结构减排情景和综合减排情景下钢铁行业CO2排放量在2020~2035年呈现逐年下降的趋势；③在不同能源类型的CO2排放分析中，高炉煤气、转炉煤气、焦炉煤气、焦油、粗苯与蒸汽这6类能源呈现出负碳排放量，而喷煤粉、焦炭、洗精煤与电力则是碳排放量最为集中的能源类型；④在不同工序CO2排放分析中，4种情景下的炼铁、轧钢和烧结都是钢铁行业CO2排放的主要来源，在已经实施的能效提升技术中，锅炉全部燃烧高炉煤气技术降碳效果最好，吨钢CO2减排量高达296 kg，电炉烟气余热回收利用技术降碳效果最差，吨钢CO2减排量只有0.77 kg. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As one of the most carbon-intensive sectors in China， the iron and steel industry plays a pivotal role in achieving the national goals of carbon peaking and neutrality， while also driving the country's rapid economic development. This study first constructs an LMDI model based on historical data from China's steel industry spanning 2000 to 2022， aiming to identify the key factors influencing carbon emissions in the sector. Using 2020 as the base year and 2035 as the target year， a LEAP model is then developed to analyze the full-process CO2 emission characteristics of China's steel industry under different scenarios between 2020 and 2035. This study provides key insights into the pathways for decarbonizing China's iron and steel industry： ① Energy structure and production scale were identified as the main drivers of the continued increase in CO2 emissions， while improvements in energy intensity and reductions in the carbon emission coefficient played a counterbalancing role by partially mitigating the overall emission growth. ② Scenario analysis showed that under the baseline scenario， CO2 emissions were expected to peak at 2 010 Mt in 2025. However， under the technological mitigation scenario， the peak was reduced to 1 814 Mt in the same year. In contrast， under both the structural mitigation and integrated mitigation scenarios， emissions were projected to decline steadily from 2020 through 2035. ③ In terms of energy type， blast furnace gas， converter gas， coke oven gas， tar， crude benzene， and steam demonstrated net negative emissions， acting as offsetting energy sources. Meanwhile， pulverized coal， coke， washed coal， and electricity accounted for the largest share of carbon emissions， highlighting their central role in total emission levels. ④ In terms of production processes， ironmaking， rolling， and sintering were found to be the primary sources of CO2 emissions across all scenarios. Among the various energy-efficiency technologies， the “full combustion of blast furnace gas in boilers” delivered the largest emission reduction， reaching 296 kg of CO2 per ton of steel. In contrast， the “electric furnace flue gas waste heat recovery” technology contributed the least to emission reductions， with a reduction of only 0.77 kg of CO2 per ton of steel. |
