| 基于PLUS模型的河南省土地利用冲突识别和多情景演化模拟 |
| 摘要点击 550 全文点击 15 投稿时间：2025-07-02 修订日期：2025-10-01 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用冲突 景观生态风险 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 河南省 |
| 英文关键词 land use conflicts landscape ecological risk PLUS model multi-scenario simulation Henan Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507025 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 曲宝融 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046 | light73425@163.com | | 黄珺嫦 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046
河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046 | | | 李玲 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046
河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046 | | | 郭珊珊 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046
河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046 | 391113@henau.edu.cn | | 侯太薇 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046 | | | 马子钧 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046 | | | 艾丽明 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046 | | | 张毅 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用冲突的精准识别与动态测度，是剖析区域土地利用态势、优化空间布局和推动可持续发展的重要基础. 以河南省为例，选取2000~2020年5期土地利用数据，构建基于景观格局的土地利用冲突识别模型，从县域和格网尺度系统解析土地利用冲突时空演化特征，并运用PLUS模型模拟河南省2035年不同发展情景下的冲突格局. 结果表明：①研究期内耕地面积由108 531.03 km2缩减至103 327.43 km2，降幅达4.79%；建设用地则显著扩张，从17 262.72 km2增长至22 152.55 km2，增幅为28.33%. ②2000~2020年，河南省整体土地利用冲突以可控类型为主，格网尺度下平均冲突指数从0.41波动降至0.40，但严重失控区域占比由0.71%增至8.51%，局部冲突加剧明显. 空间分布上，可控冲突区域集中于林地、山区等人类活动少的地带，格局稳定；而失控冲突区域变化显著，2005年后，随着工业化、城市化发展，在城市中心、人口密集区及其周边，土地利用冲突面积与等级均显著提升. ③2035年河南省土地利用冲突多情景模拟显示，4种情景下失控单元占比均低于50%. 其中，城镇发展情景冲突最严重，失控单元占比47.11%；生态保护与耕地优先情景冲突较低，前者可控单元占比59.7%，后者可控单元占比70.89%，严重失控单元仅1.15%，且基本失控与严重失控单元占比总和最小，因此，耕地优先情景是河南省未来土地利用的最优发展路径. 研究结果可为河南省统筹耕地保护与城镇化建设、制定科学的土地利用政策提供参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Accurate identification and dynamic measurement of land use conflicts is an important basis for analyzing regional land use dynamics， optimizing spatial layout， and promoting sustainable development. Taking Henan Province as an example， this study utilizes five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020 to construct a land use conflict identification model based on land use landscape pattern， systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts at both county and grid scales， and employs the PLUS model to simulate conflict patterns under different development scenarios for Henan Province by 2035. The results show that： ① During the study period， cultivated land area decreased from 108 531.03 km2 to 103 327.43 km2， representing a decline of 4.79%， and construction land expanded significantly， increasing from 17 262.72 km2 to 22 152.55 km2， an increase of 28.33%. ② From 2000 to 2020， land use conflicts in Henan Province were predominantly controllable. The average conflict index at the grid scale fluctuated downward from 0.41 to 0.40. However， the proportion of severely uncontrolled areas increased from 0.71% to 8.51%， indicating a significant intensification of localized conflicts. In terms of spatial distribution， controllable conflict zones were concentrated in areas with minimal human activity， such as forested regions and mountainous areas， exhibiting stable patterns. Conversely， uncontrollable conflict zones showed significant changes. Since 2005， driven by industrialization and urbanization， both the extent and severity of land use conflicts have markedly increased in urban centers， densely populated areas， and their surrounding regions. ③ Simulations of multiple land use conflict scenarios in Henan Province for 2035 indicated that the proportion of uncontrolled units remained below 50% across all four scenarios. Among these， the urban development scenario exhibited the most severe conflicts， with uncontrolled units accounting for 47.11%. The ecological protection and arable land priority scenarios exhibited lower conflict levels. The ecological protection scenario had 59.7% controllable units， while the arable land priority scenario had 70.89% controllable units； only 1.15% of units were severely uncontrollable， and the combined proportion of units with basic uncontrollable and severely uncontrollable was minimal. Therefore， the arable land priority scenario represents the optimal development path for Henan's future land use. The results of the study can provide scientific reference for Henan Province to coordinate arable land conservation with urbanization development and formulate scientifically sound land use policies. |
