| 基于PLUS模型的“三生”用地情景模拟及景观生态风险分析：以长江中游城市群为例 |
| 摘要点击 631 全文点击 11 投稿时间：2025-06-10 修订日期：2025-09-12 |
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| 中文关键词 三生空间 PLUS模型 景观生态风险 土地利用变化 长江中游城市群 |
| 英文关键词 production-living-ecological spaces PLUS model landscape ecological risk land use change urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506114 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 长江中游城市群是我国实施中部崛起战略的关键区域. 过去10 a里，土地利用变化加剧了区域生态系统脆弱性与不稳定性. 因此，准确评估该区域的景观生态风险对保障其未来可持续发展具有关键意义. 基于2010年、2015年和2020年这3期土地利用数据，运用景观生态风险评价模型和统计方法，定量分析了2010~2020年景观生态风险时空演变特征，并利用PLUS模型，模拟预测了2035年在自然发展、生产优先和生态保护这3种情景下，区域“三生空间”分布格局及其相应的景观生态风险空间分异特征. 结果表明，2010~2020年，长江中游城市群生态空间面积缩减约1 876.665 5 km2，生产空间和生活空间分别扩张2 117.629 1 km2和1 855.684 8 km2；2010~2020年间景观生态风险总体呈上升趋势，高风险区面积由3 625 km2增加到4 203 km2，空间上主要集中分布在武汉市及其周边黄石、孝感部分区域，长株潭连片区域以及南昌、宜昌和岳阳等沿江城市；在2035年“三生空间”多情景模拟中，自然发展情景和生产优先情景下“三生空间”面积基本保持不变，生态保护情景下生态空间面积有所增加，且主要来源于农业生产空间；3种情景中，生态保护情景下生态安全格局最优，高风险区面积仅占1.06%；生产优先情景风险结构最为失衡，较高风险区和高风险区占比之和高达10.27%，主要集聚在长江、湘江和赣江沿岸城市. 研究结果揭示了不同土地发展策略对景观生态的差异化影响，为长江中游城市群未来土地利用规划和生态保护提供了科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The urban agglomeration in middle reaches of the Yangtze River is a key area for the implementation of the Central Rise Strategy in China. Over the past decade， land use changes have intensified the vulnerability and instability of the regional ecosystem. Therefore， accurately assessing the landscape ecological risks in this area is of crucial significance for ensuring its sustainable development in the future. Based on the land use data of 2010， 2015， and 2020， the landscape ecological risk assessment model and statistical methods were used to quantitatively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of landscape ecological risks from 2010 to 2020. Moreover， the PLUS model was utilized to simulate and predict the distribution patterns of the production-living-ecological spaces and the corresponding spatial differentiation characteristics of landscape ecological risks in 2035 under three scenarios： natural development， production priority， and ecological protection. From 2010 to 2020， the area of ecological space in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River decreased by approximately 1 876.665 5 square kilometers， while the areas of production space and living space expanded by 2 117.629 1 square kilometers and 1 855.684 8 square kilometers， respectively. During the period from 2010 to 2020， the overall landscape ecological risk showed an upward trend， with the area of high-risk zones increasing from 3 625 square kilometers to 4 203 square kilometers. Spatially， they were mainly concentrated in the Wuhan City and its surrounding areas including Huangshi and Xiaogang； the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration； as well as the riverfront cities of Nanchang， Yichang， and Yueyang. In the multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological spaces in 2035， the areas of production-living-ecological spaces remained basically unchanged under the natural development scenario and production priority scenario， while the area of ecological space increased under the ecological protection scenario， mainly derived from the agricultural production space. Among the three scenarios， the ecological protection scenario had the best ecological security pattern， with the area of high-risk zones accounting for only 1.06%. The production priority scenario had the most imbalanced risk structure， with the combined proportion of high-risk and very high-risk zones reaching 10.27%， mainly concentrated along the Yangtze， Xiang， and Gan Rivers. The research results reveal the differentiated impacts of different land development strategies on landscape ecology， providing a scientific basis for the future land use planning and ecological protection of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. |
