| 考虑气候时间效应的西南高山峡谷区植被变化归因分析 |
| 摘要点击 251 全文点击 3 投稿时间：2025-04-02 修订日期：2025-06-02 |
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| 中文关键词 增强型植被指数（EVI） 时间滞后效应 时间累积效应 残差分析 遥感 |
| 英文关键词 enhanced vegetation index （EVI） time-lag effect time-cumulative effect residual analysis remote sensing |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504022 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 陈祖亮 | 北京林业大学水土保持学院, 北京 100083
北京林业大学云南建水荒漠生态系统国家定位研究站, 建水 654399 | zlchen@bjfu.edu.cn | | 陆子淳 | 北京林业大学水土保持学院, 北京 100083
北京林业大学云南建水荒漠生态系统国家定位研究站, 建水 654399 | | | 郑成浩 | 北京林业大学水土保持学院, 北京 100083
北京林业大学云南建水荒漠生态系统国家定位研究站, 建水 654399 | | | 周金星 | 北京林业大学水土保持学院, 北京 100083
北京林业大学云南建水荒漠生态系统国家定位研究站, 建水 654399
北京林业大学教育部林业生态工程研究中心, 北京 100083
北京林业大学林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室, 北京 100083 | zjx9277@126.com |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 西南高山峡谷区生态系统脆弱且对气候变化响应敏感，研究该区植被生长对气候变化响应的时间效应，有助于准确理解气候与植被之间的关系，并可为区域生态系统管理提供重要科学依据. 基于2001~2023年生长季增强型植被指数（EVI），采用逐像元趋势分析、时滞和累积效应分析及多元回归残差分析，系统探究了植被动态变化特征及其气候响应机制. 结果表明：①2001~2023年研究区生长季EVI以0.001 1 a-1的增速呈显著上升趋势（P<0.001）. 空间上EVI呈现南高北低格局且随海拔上升而加速下降. EVI上升面积占比80.49%，其中显著上升面积占比24.15%，集中分布于云贵高原西北部. EVI显著下降面积占比1.31%，零星分布于河谷平原地区. ②植被生长对降水和气温变化的响应表现出明显的累积效应，影响面积分别占研究区的70.61%和45.05%. 气温和降水对植被生长的影响分别平均滞后0.26个月和0.31个月，平均累积0.66个月和1.36个月. 降水影响植被生长的滞后期和累积期均长于气温，植被生长对气温变化更敏感. ③相比于不考虑时间效应、只考虑时滞效应和只考虑累积效应的情况，同时考虑时滞和累积效应时气候变化对EVI变化的平均解释力分别上升了6.68%、7.97%和8.16%. ④气候变化和人类活动共同驱动EVI变化，二者的贡献率分别为44.61%和55.39%. 其中高山带EVI变化主要受气候变化的正向影响，而中山带和中低山河谷带EVI变化主要受人类活动的正向影响. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The ecosystem in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Area of China is fragile and sensitive to climate change. Studying the time effect of vegetation growth in response to climate change in this area is helpful to accurately understand the relationship between climate and vegetation and can provide an important scientific basis for regional ecosystem management. Based on the enhanced vegetation index （EVI） of the growing season from 2001 to 2023， the pixel-by-pixel trend analysis， time-lag and time-cumulative effect analysis， and multiple regression residual analysis system were used to explore the characteristics of vegetation dynamic change and its climate response mechanism. The results showed that： ① From 2001 to 2023， the EVI in the growing season of the study area showed a significant upward trend at a rate of 0.001 1 a-1 （P<0.001）. Spatially， EVI showed a pattern of high in the south and low in the north and decreased rapidly with the increase in altitude. The rising area of EVI accounted for 80.49%， of which the significant rising area accounted for 24.15%， which was concentrated in the northwest of Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau. The area of EVI decreased significantly， accounting for 1.31%， which was scattered in the valley plain area. ② The response of vegetation growth to precipitation and temperature changes showed a significant cumulative effect， and the affected areas accounted for 70.61% and 45.05% of the study area， respectively. The effects of temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth lagged by 0.26 and 0.31 months on average and accumulated by 0.66 and 1.36 months on average. The lag period and cumulative period of precipitation affecting vegetation growth were longer than that of temperature， and vegetation growth was more sensitive to temperature changes. ③ The average explanatory power of climate change on EVI changes increased by 6.68%， 7.97%， and 8.16%， respectively， when considering both time delay and cumulative effects， compared with those without considering time effect， only considering time delay effect， and only considering cumulative effect. ④ Climate change and human activities jointly drove EVI changes， with the contribution rates of 44.61% and 55.39%， respectively. Among them， the change of EVI in the alpine zone was mainly positively affected by climate change， while the change of EVI in the middle and low mountain valley zone and the middle mountain zone was mainly positively affected by human activities. |
