| 京津冀地区“煤改电”对PM2.5污染的健康效益评估 |
| 摘要点击 1198 全文点击 405 投稿时间：2022-11-30 修订日期：2023-02-14 |
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| 中文关键词 京津冀 煤改电 PM2.5 过早死亡 健康效益 |
| 英文关键词 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region coal-to-electricity policy PM2.5 premature mortality health benefits |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为准确评估京津冀地区采暖期实施"煤改电"政策带来的健康效益，估算了京津冀地区各区县采暖期"煤改电"政策实施前后PM2.5污染导致的过早死亡人数，并采用支付意愿法计算了相应的健康损失价值.结果表明，京津冀地区"煤改电"政策实施后带来了1745人（95% CI：1443~1907）健康效益和23.78亿元（95% CI：14.50~30.63）经济效益.北京、天津及河北地区的健康效益分别为495人（95% CI：436~554）、296人（95% CI：238~354）及954人（95% CI：693~1076）.经济效益分别为3.50亿元（95% CI：3.08~3.92）、3.32亿元（95% CI：2.67~3.96）及16.96亿元（95% CI：8.75~22.75），分别占各地区GDP的0.01%、0.02%及0.04%.COPD、LC、ALRI、IHD、STROKE减少的死亡人数分别为187人（95% CI：165~224）、318人（95% CI：178~458）、193人（95% CI：115~204）、506人（95% CI：232~780）及542人（95% CI：463~621）.环境PM2.5污染浓度相对较高、人口密集污染排放较集中的地区，能够获得显著的健康效益和经济效益. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To accurately assess the health benefits of the coal-to-electricity policy during the heating period in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) Region, the premature deaths caused by PM2.5 before and after the implementation of the coal-to-electricity policy during the heating period in each district and county of the BTH Region were estimated, and the corresponding health loss values were calculated using the willingness to pay method. The results showed that the implementation of the coal-to-electricity policy in the BTH Region brought 1745 cases(95% CI:1443-1907) of health benefits and 2.38 billion yuan(95% CI:1.45-3.06) in economic benefits. In Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei there were 495 cases(95% CI:436-554), 296 cases(95% CI:238-354), and 954 cases(95% CI:693-1076) of health benefits, respectively. The economic benefits were 0.35 billion yuan(95% CI:0.30-0.39), 0.33 billion yuan(95% CI:0.27-0.40), and 1.70 billion yuan(95% CI:0.88-2.28), respectively, accounting for 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.04% of GDP in each region. The number of premature deaths due to COPD, LC, ALRI, IHD, and STROKE decreased by 187 cases(95% CI:165-224), 318 cases(95% CI:178-458), 193 cases(95% CI:115-204), 506 cases(95% CI:232-780), and 542 cases(95% CI:463-621), respectively. Areas with relatively high environmental PM2.5 concentrations and concentrated population-intensive pollution emissions can achieve significant health and economic benefits. |
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