| 近年官厅水库妫水河入库断面水质演变分析 |
| 摘要点击 702 全文点击 80 投稿时间：2024-05-07 修订日期：2024-08-05 |
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| 中文关键词 官厅水库 水质 影响因素 疫情 “23·7”暴雨 灰色预测模型（GFM） |
| 英文关键词 Guanting Reservoir water quality influencing factors epidemic “23·7” rainstorm gray forecast model （GFM） |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 研究基于2017~2023年官厅水库上游（妫水河段）入库断面谷家营监测站点水质手工及自动监测数据，综合运用Mann-Kendall统计检验、STL趋势分解、灰色预测模型和排放清单统计等分析方法，结合文献调研，系统揭示了官厅水库上游流域水质演变趋势、影响因素和疫情管控、暴雨等特殊事件对水质的影响. 结果表明：①2017~2023年为近50 a来官厅水库上游入库断面水质较好的时间段，2007年恢复成为备用水源地以来，入库水质明显改善，水质从Ⅳ类提升至Ⅲ类，部分月份可达Ⅱ类. 2017~2023年氨氮（NH4+-N）浓度降低最明显，可能与近年延庆区对农业面源和生活源的强化管控有关. ②2022年3~5月半封控期间官厅水库入库断面主要水质指标浓度同比和环比均明显降低，疫情管控措施明显改善了水质. “23·7”暴雨期间，官厅水库入库断面水质急剧恶化，浊度（TUR）、总磷（TP）和高锰酸盐指数对上游流量突变响应最快. ③农业面源和生活污水是官厅水库上游断面水质影响的主要污染源，两者贡献超99%；预测“十四五”末水质总体稳定在Ⅱ~Ⅲ类，下一步应重点关注汛期和枯水期官厅水库入库断面水质变化. 研究分析方法体系可为国内其他河流和水源地开展水质研究与评价提供参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on manual and automatic monitoring data of water quality at the Gujiaying section of the upstream of Guanting Reservoir （Guishui River section） from 2017 to 2023， this study comprehensive applied the Mann Kendall statistical test， STL trend decomposition， grey prediction model， and emission inventory statistics and other analysis methods， combined with literature research， and systematically revealed the water quality evolutions， influencing factors， and the impact of epidemic control and rainstorm events on water quality in the upper reaches of Guanting Reservoir. The results showed that： ① The period from 2017 to 2023 was the best time for the upstream inflow water quality of Guanting Reservoir in 50 years. Since Guanting Reservoir was restored as a backup water source in 2007， the inflow water quality was significantly improved， rising from Class Ⅳ to Class Ⅲ， reaching Class II in some months. The most significant decrease in NH4+-N concentration from 2017 to 2023 may be related to the strengthened control of agricultural non-point sources and domestic sources in Yanqing District in recent years. ② During the lockdown period from March to May 2022， the concentrations of the main water quality indicators at the inlet section of Guanting Reservoir were significantly decreased year-on-year and month-on-month， and the epidemic control measures significantly improved the water quality. During the “23·7” rainstorm， the water quality at the inlet section of Guanting Reservoir deteriorated sharply， and turbidity， TP， and permanganate index responded fastest to the sudden change of upstream flow. ③ Agricultural non-point sources and domestic sewage were the main emissions affecting the water quality of the upstream section of Guanting Reservoir， with both contributing over 99%. The predicted water quality by the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period would be generally stable in Class Ⅱ-Ⅲ. The next step should focus on the variations in water quality at the inlet section of Guanting Reservoir during flood and dry seasons. This study provides technical means for the follow-up pollution control and sustainable improvement of river ecological environment. |
