| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的平陆运河经济带土地利用情景模拟及生境质量变化 |
| 摘要点击 3675 全文点击 623 投稿时间：2024-07-15 修订日期：2024-09-15 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 生境质量 多情景模拟 InVEST模型 平陆运河经济带 |
| 英文关键词 land use change habitat quality multi-scenario simulation InVEST model Pinglu River Economic Belt |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407166 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 文少强 | 南宁师范大学北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室, 广西地表过程与智能模拟重点实验室, 南宁 530001
南宁师范大学自然资源与测绘学院, 南宁 530001 | 1254191480@qq.com | | 胡宝清 | 南宁师范大学北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室, 广西地表过程与智能模拟重点实验室, 南宁 530001 | hbq1230@nnnu.edu.cn | | 谢薇薇 | 南宁师范大学北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室, 广西地表过程与智能模拟重点实验室, 南宁 530001
南宁师范大学自然资源与测绘学院, 南宁 530001 | | | 高春莲 | 南宁师范大学北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室, 广西地表过程与智能模拟重点实验室, 南宁 530001
南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院, 南宁 530001 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究平陆运河经济带生境质量时空变化特征及其影响因素,对于实现平陆运河经济带高质量、高水平建设发展具有重要意义. 因此,基于2000~2020年5期土地利用数据,运用PLUS模型预测自然发展（NDS）、生态保护（EPS）和平陆运河规划（PS）这3种情景中平陆运河经济带2030年的土地利用变化格局,并耦合InVEST模型和地理探测器探讨2000~2030年平陆运河经济带的生境质量时空演变特征和影响因素. 结果表明：①平陆运河经济带土地利用类型主要以林地、耕地为主. 2000~2020年形成以建设用地面积持续增加而其他用地持续减少趋势；2030年不同情景土地利用预测中,NDS情景的土地变化契合以往的发展模式,EPS情景极大限制建设用地扩张而生态用地面积有所增加,PS情景中建设用地、水域及林地面积都显现出不同程度的增加. ②2000~2020年,较高、高等级的生境质量区域约占全区57%,其中,生境质量显著、轻微减少的区域主要围绕着城区扩散,呈现出逐年退化的趋势；对于2030年生境质量的预测,NDS情景因建设用地持续增加致使生境质量持续退化,EPS情景因有效保护生态用地能大幅提升生境质量,其变化趋势向好,PS情景的生境质量发展趋势较为平稳. ③坡度是影响生境质量空间差异的主要因素,并与其他因素交互作用显著. 因此,未来平陆运河的规划建设中,应合理控制建设用地增量,维护高等级生境质量的生态用地,避免对地形起伏较大区域过度开发,以此丰富平陆运河经济带生物多样性. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of habitat quality and its influencing factors in the Pinglu Canal Economic Belt is crucial for promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of this region. Based on five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use change pattern of the Pinglu Canal Economic Zone for 2030 under three scenarios： natural development （NDS）, ecological protection （EPS）, and planning for the Pinglu Canal （PS）. The InVEST model and geodetector were then coupled to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of habitat quality from 2000 to 2030. The results showed that： ① The predominant land use types in the Pinglu Canal Economic Belt were forest land and arable land. Between the years 2000 and 2020, a discernible trend of continuous expansion in the area of construction land and a corresponding decline in the area of other land uses was observed. Projections for different scenarios in 2030 indicated that the land changes in the NDS scenario aligned with the historical development pattern. In contrast, the EPS scenario significantly constrained the expansion of construction land, while the PS scenario exhibited varying degrees of growth in construction land, water, and forest land. In the PS scenario, a notable increase was observed in the area of construction land, water, and forest land. In the PS scenario, the area of built-up land, water, and forest land all demonstrated varying degrees of increase. ② From 2000 to 2020, the area of high and high-grade habitat quality accounted for 57% of the total area. The area of serious and slight decrease in habitat quality was concentrated in the urban area and showed a trend of the degradation of habitat quality that was predicted to continue year on year in the NDS scenario because of the expansion of built-up land. In contrast, the EPS scenario was expected to result in a significant improvement in habitat quality, as a consequence of the protection of ecological land. By 2030, the NDS scenario will continue to degrade habitat quality due to the continuous increase of construction land, whereas the EPS scenario will greatly improve habitat quality because of the effective protection of ecological land, resulting in a positive trend of change. ③ Slope was the primary factor influencing the spatial variation of habitat quality and interacted significantly with other factors. Therefore, in the future planning and construction of the Pinglu Canal, it is essential to exercise restraint in the incremental amount of construction land, maintain ecological land with high habitat quality, and avoid over-development of areas. |
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