| 青藏高寒区“三生空间”演变及碳排放多情景模拟：以青海省为例 |
| 摘要点击 2898 全文点击 649 投稿时间：2024-07-05 修订日期：2024-09-11 |
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| 中文关键词 三生空间 碳排放 FLUS模型 STRIPAT模型 青海省 |
| 英文关键词 Production-Living-Ecological spaces carbon emission FLUS model STRIPAT model Qinghai Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407052 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 高亚培 | 青海大学土木水利学院, 西宁 810016 | gaoyp@qhu.edu.cn | | 刘玮 | 青海省气象局气象服务中心, 西宁 810012 | | | 李成英 | 青海大学土木水利学院, 西宁 810016 | | | 步婉茹 | 青海大学财经学院, 西宁 810016 | | | 海文静 | 青海大学土木水利学院, 西宁 810016 | | | 任君 | 青海大学土木水利学院, 西宁 810016
青海大学财经学院, 西宁 810016
青海大学黄河上游生态保护和高质量发展实验室, 西宁 810016 | Renjun@qhu.edu.cn | | 陈万旭 | 青海大学黄河上游生态保护和高质量发展实验室, 西宁 810016
中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院, 武汉 430074 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探索低碳化国土空间开发策略对于维持青藏高寒区自然生态系统稳定和社会经济系统可持续发展具有重要意义. 以青海省为研究对象,遵循“历史-现状-未来”的逻辑,基于2000~2020年多期遥感影像数据,采用“三生空间”分类体系法、STRIPAT模型及FLUS模型等多种模型方法,多情景模拟青海省“三生空间”碳排放. 结果表明：①2000~2020年青海省“三生空间”面积从高到低为：生态空间>生态生产空间>生产生态空间>生活生产空间. ②2000~2020年“三生空间”净碳排放量从-74.85×104 t增加到407.82×104 t；③碳源情景、自然发展情景和碳汇情景下2030和2060年“三生空间”仍呈生态空间为主、其他空间为辅的空间格局. ④未来青海省“三生空间”净碳排放从高到低均为：碳源情景>自然发展情景>碳汇情景,青海省应聚焦“国之大者”,优化“三生空间”格局,培育和发展新质生产力,加大降源增汇措施,推进碳排放总量和强度“双控”,守好“中华水塔”. 研究结果可为青海省制定低碳土地利用策略提供理论依据,并为其他区域碳减排和可持续发展提供案例参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring low-carbon territorial space developing strategies is crucial for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau vulnerable region to maintain the stability of natural ecosystems and sustainable development of socio-economic systems. Taking Qinghai Province as a study case, following the logic of "history-present-future" and based on the multi-period remote sensing image data from 2000 to 2020, various modeling methods were applied to analyze and simulate the evolution of the production-living-ecological spaces pattern and the carbon emissions in Qinghai Province, such as the production-living-ecological spaces classification system method, the land use carbon emission coefficient method, the STRIPAT model, and the FLUS model. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of the production-living-ecological spaces in Qinghai Province, from high to low, was as follows： ecological space > ecological production space > production ecological space > living production space. ② The net carbon emission of the production-living-ecological spaces from 2000 to 2020 increased from -74.85×104 t to 407.82×104 t. ③ The production-living-ecological spaces of the carbon emission scenario （CE）, natural development scenario （ND）, and carbon absorption scenario （CA） were still dominated by ecological space in 2030 and 2060. ④ The net carbon emissions of the production-living-ecological spaces of the CE, ND, and CA were： CE > ND > CA, in descending order. Qinghai Province should optimize the pattern of production-living-ecological spaces, cultivate and develop new quality productive forces, increase measures to reduce carbon emission sources and increase carbon sinks, promote the dual control of total carbon emissions and intensity, focus on the top priorities of the country, and safeguard the water tower of China. The study results can provide theoretical basis for developing low-carbon land use strategies of Qinghai Province and provide case references for carbon reduction and sustainable development in other regions. |
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