| 武汉城市圈土地利用结构演变对陆地碳储量的影响 |
| 摘要点击 264 全文点击 10 投稿时间：2025-07-01 修订日期：2025-10-31 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用结构 陆地碳储量 GeoSOS-FLUS 情景模拟 武汉城市圈 |
| 英文关键词 land-use structure terrestrial carbon storage GeoSOS-FLUS scenario simulation Wuhan Metropolitan Area |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507013 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 武汉城市圈作为快速城市化地区典型代表，分析不同发展情景下未来土地利用结构对陆地碳储量变化的影响，对实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义. 研究耦合GeoSOS-FLUS、Geodetector及InVEST等方法估算出1990~2020年武汉城市圈土地利用及陆地碳储量时空特征，并探讨其影响因素，建立自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护及综合发展这4种情景，模拟预测2030和2060年的碳储量演变特征. 结果表明：①1990~2020年武汉城市圈土地利用结构信息熵整体呈增加趋势，地区间结构差异显著. 建设用地占用耕地1 538.29 km2，面积占比从4.96%增加到8.18%. 耕地年均减少111.73 km2，主要集中在城市群中心区域. ②耕地向林地和建设用地转化成为碳储量变化的主要因素，其中耕地转为建设用地导致碳储量损失1 073×104 t. 因子探测从时序上分析显示，DEM和NDVI是解释力最高的驱动因子. ③不同情景模拟结果显示，2060年碳储量最高的是耕地保护情景（64.90×107 t），其次是综合发展情景，碳储量为63.63×107 t. 研究结果可为城市地区陆地碳储量评估与空间驱动分析提供依据，并为决策者制定“双碳”战略目标、推动可持续发展提供参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As a typical example of a rapidly urbanizing region， the Wuhan Metropolitan Area is ideal for analyzing the impacts of future land-use structure under different development scenarios on terrestrial carbon stock， which is of great significance for achieving regional sustainable development. By integrating the GeoSOS-FLUS， Geodetector， and InVEST models， this study estimated the spatiotemporal characteristics of land use and terrestrial carbon stock in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area from 1990 to 2020， examined their driving factors， and established four scenarios—natural development， cultivated land protection， ecological protection， and comprehensive development—to simulate and predict carbon stock dynamics for 2030 and 2060. The results indicate the following： ① From 1990 to 2020， the information entropy of land-use structure in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area increased year by year， with significant structural differences among subregions. The expansion of construction land encroached on 1 538.29 km2 of cultivated land， increasing its proportion from 4.96% to 8.18%. Cultivated land decreased at an average annual amount of 111.73 km2， mainly in the core areas of the urban agglomeration. ② The conversion of cultivated land to forest land and construction land was the main driver of carbon stock changes， and the conversion of cultivated land to construction land resulted in a carbon stock loss of approximately 1 073×104 t. Temporal factor detection analysis indicated that DEM and NDVI were the most influential driving factors. ③ Scenario simulation results showed that by 2060， the highest carbon stock would occur under the cultivated land protection scenario （64.90×107 t）， followed by the comprehensive development scenario （63.63×107 t）. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing terrestrial carbon stocks and their spatial driving forces in urban areas and offer a reference for policymakers in formulating “dual carbon” strategies and promoting sustainable development. |
