| 基于碳储量变化的区域土地利用碳源汇效应识别与预测：以长株潭城市群为例 |
| 摘要点击 270 全文点击 5 投稿时间：2025-08-06 修订日期：2025-10-25 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 碳储量变化 碳源汇效应 情景模拟 长株潭城市群 |
| 英文关键词 land use carbon storage changes carbon source-sink effect scenario simulation Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202508055 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用变化是影响区域碳源汇动态演变最直接的因素，精准识别和科学预测土地利用变化的碳源汇效应，对区域内土地利用结构优化及“双碳”目标实现具有重要意义. 以长株潭城市群为研究区，基于1990~2020年土地利用演变特征，运用InVEST模型评估碳储量对土地利用变化的响应及碳源汇效应识别，并耦合PLUS模型预测自然发展情景、城镇发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态保护情景和综合保护情景下2030年和2060年土地利用变化对碳储量的影响及碳源汇效应. 结果表明：①1990~2020年长株潭城市群有2 259.04 km2的土地发生了转移，耕地和林地是主要的转出者，建设用地是主要的转入者. ②1990~2020年长株潭城市群碳储量总体上呈现出逐步减少的趋势；碳储量的空间分布具有空间异质性；耕地和林地转化为建设用地导致碳储量损失最多. ③高碳储量用地林地转为低碳储量用地耕地、草地、水域和建设用地碳储量均减少，表现为碳源效应；低碳储量用地耕地、草地和建设用地转为林地，碳储量增加，表现为碳汇效应. ④根据2030年土地利用演变模拟结果，各情景下的碳储量总量依次为：综合保护情景（IP）>耕地保护情景（CP）>生态保护情景（EP）>自然发展情景（ND）>城镇发展情景（UD），到2060年，碳储量总量依次为：综合保护情景（IP）>生态保护情景（EP）>耕地保护情景（CP）>城镇发展情景（UD）>自然发展情景（ND），2030年和2060年综合保护情景碳储量最高. ⑤2030年和2060年生态保护情景和综合保护情景下碳汇效应较明显，这两种情景更有利于“双碳”目标实现. 研究结果可为制定合理的土地利用政策，减缓生态系统碳流失提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The dynamic evolution of local carbon sources and sinks is significantly impacted by alterations in land utilization. Accurately detecting and evaluating the carbon source-sink effects of these changes is critical for improving local land utilization structures and reaching the double carbon targets. The Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration's land utilization trends between 1990 and 2020 are investigated in this study. This study uses the InVEST model to examine carbon preservation's response to land use changes and associated source-sink dynamics. The PLUS model is also employed to evaluate the impact of land use changes on carbon storage and source-sink dynamics in five future scenarios （integrated preservation， ecological preservation， farmland preservation， urban growth， and natural growth） for 2030 and 2060. The findings show that： ① Between 1990 and 2020， a total of 2 259.04 km2 of land within the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration underwent transformation. The majority of this spatial change originated from farmland and woodland， while developed land emerged as the dominant type of newly developed land. ② Between 1990 and 2020， the metropolitan agglomeration of Changsha， Zhuzhou， and Xiangtan had a gradual decline in carbon storage. The geographical pattern of carbon storage exhibited spatial heterogeneity. The transformation of farmland and woodland into developed land resulted in the most significant decrease in carbon sequestration. ③ The conversion of high carbon storage land， such as forest land， to low carbon storage land types like cropland， grassland， water bodies， and construction land resulted in a decrease in carbon storage， exhibiting a carbon source effect. Conversely， the conversion of low carbon storage land types like cropland， grassland， and construction land to forest land increased carbon storage， exhibiting a carbon sink effect. ④ Projections for 2030 indicated that the total carbon storage would rank as follows： Integrated Protection （IP） > Cultivated Land Protection （CP） > Ecological Protection （EP） > Natural Development （ND） > Urban Development （UD）. By 2060， the ranking changes to IP > EP > CP > UD > ND. The Integrated Protection Scenario exhibits the highest total carbon storage in both 2030 and 2060. ⑤ In 2030 and 2060， the Protection of the Ecosystem and Integrated Preservation scenarios are more suited to showing significant carbon sink impacts and accomplishing both of the carbon goals （carbon maximum and carbon balance）. These findings establish a robust scientific framework for the development of sustainable land utilization strategies and the reduction of carbon sequestration capacity loss in ecosystems. |
