| 时空分异视角下制造业集聚对生态韧性的影响：以长江经济带为例 |
| 摘要点击 256 全文点击 4 投稿时间：2025-08-23 修订日期：2025-11-10 |
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| 中文关键词 制造业集聚 生态韧性 时空异质性 时空地理加权回归 长江经济带 |
| 英文关键词 manufacturing agglomeration ecological resilience spatiotemporal heterogeneity geographically and temporally weighted regression Yangtze River Economic Belt |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202508224 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 科学评估制造业集聚对城市生态韧性的作用，不仅有助于推动城市群制造业高质量发展与高水平保护协同，还能为区域城市生态韧性提升提供科学依据. 首先，纳入企业经纬度和企业数量双维度信息采用基于熵权法的综合评价方法，计算出2005~2022年长江经济带110个城市的制造业集聚水平. 再构造出生态韧性的综合指标体系并利用综合评价法计算出历年各个城市的生态韧性得分；然后，对比分析制造业集聚与生态韧性水平的时空变化特征，进而采用时空地理加权回归模型检验研究区制造业集聚对生态韧性的时空异质性影响. 结果表明：①长江经济带制造业集聚水平总体展现出“下游高、上游低”的空间格局，且明显存在由东向西的转移趋势. 此外，下游的生态韧性水平高于中上游，并且随时间不断提高. 生态韧性的空间格局总体上呈现出从“集中片状低韧性”向“分散点状高韧性”演变的规律. 制造业集聚水平和生态韧性水平在空间格局上均表现出明显的空间异质性. ②时空地理加权回归模型结果显示，制造业集聚能显著提高生态韧性，并表现出显著的时空异质性. 在时间维度上，促进作用表现出先降后升的时间动态特征. 在空间维度上，长江经济带中游城市制造业集聚对生态韧性的平均影响最高. ③对外开放水平、科技支出水平以及产业结构对生态韧性具有正向作用，而人口密度和政府干预程度对生态韧性产生抑制作用，另外，环境规制对生态韧性的影响存在一定的波动性. 最后，根据研究结果针对不同的区域提出差异化的调控策略. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Scientific assessment of the role of manufacturing agglomeration on urban ecological resilience not only helps to promote the synergy of high-quality development and high-level protection of the manufacturing industry in urban agglomerations but also provides scientific basis for the enhancement of regional urban ecological resilience. This study incorporates the two-dimensional information of enterprises' longitude and latitude as well as the number of enterprises and adopts the entropy weight comprehensive evaluation method to measure the level of manufacturing agglomeration of 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2022. Similarly， it builds the comprehensive indicators system of ecological resilience and utilizes the entropy weight comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the scores of ecological resilience of each city during the sample period. Then， it analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of the scores of manufacturing agglomeration and ecological resilience and subsequently adopts the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to test the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the impacts of manufacturing agglomeration on the ecological resilience of the study area. The results of the study found that： ① The level of manufacturing agglomeration in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a spatial pattern of “high downstream and low upstream，” and there was a clear trend of transfer from east to west. In addition， the ecological resilience level of the downstream was higher than that of the middle and upper reaches， and it has been increasing over time. The spatial pattern of ecological resilience generally showed a pattern of evolution from “centralized piecewise low resilience” to “decentralized pointwise high resilience.” Both the level of manufacturing agglomeration and the level of ecological resilience showed obvious spatial heterogeneity in the spatial pattern. ② The results of the geographically and temporally weighted regression model showed that the manufacturing agglomeration could significantly improve ecological resilience and exhibited significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In the time dimension， the promotion effect showed the time dynamic characteristic of first decreasing and then increasing. In the spatial dimension， manufacturing agglomeration in mid-river cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt exerted the highest average impact on ecological resilience. ③ In addition， the level of openness to the outside world， the level of scientific and technological expenditure， and industrial structure had a positive effect on ecological resilience， while population density and the degree of government intervention had an inhibitory effect on ecological resilience； furthermore， environmental regulation had a certain degree of volatility in its impact on ecological resilience. Finally， based on the research findings， differentiated regulation strategies are proposed for the different regions. |
