| 宁夏固原市景观生态风险演变及驱动因素的影响 |
| 摘要点击 272 全文点击 3 投稿时间：2025-07-15 修订日期：2025-10-21 |
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| 中文关键词 景观生态风险（LER） 归一化植被指数（NDVI） 空间异质性 地理探测器 多尺度地理加权回归分析（MGWR） |
| 英文关键词 landscape ecological risk （LER） normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） spatial heterogeneity Geodetector technique multiscale geographically weighted regression （MGWR） |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507196 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 科学评估景观生态风险（LER）对维护生态系统健康和促进区域协调发展起重要作用，探究LER时空变化趋势及其驱动因子，对区域可持续发展具有重要意义. 以宁夏固原市为研究对象，基于2000~2020年景观类型数据，分析其LER时空变化特征，采用Moran's I指数分析LER空间聚集性，通过地理探测器技术和地理加权回归模型探究LER驱动因素. 结果表明：①2000~2020年间景观类型以耕地为主，而转移特征以耕地转为草地为主；林地主要呈增长趋势，水域、建设用地和未利用地面积占比较小但变化速度较快. ②研究期内，LER值呈降低趋势，高风险和较高风险面积逐年降低，中风险、较低风险和低风险面积显著增加，高风险和较高风险区主要转移为中风险，空间上有明显聚集性且以“高-高”和“低-低”聚集型为主. ③固原市LER受自然因素和社会经济因素共同影响，单因素中NDVI影响最大，2020年解释力（q值）达0.589；交互作用中NDVI与人口密度交互作用最大，q值为0.728，双因素中降水和人口密度交互作用变化最明显，2015年q值最高为0.497，2020年q值最低为0.385. NDVI对LER主要起抑制作用，极端气候和不利地形会导致LER增加，社会经济因素对原州区和西吉县LER主要起正向驱动作用. 研究结果为区域生态保护和城市建设提供理论指导，促进景观生态风险格局协同发展，推进固原市生态环境质量提升与区域经济可持续发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Scientific assessment of landscape ecological risk （LER） plays a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem health and promoting regional coordinated development. Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution trends and driving factors of LER is of great significance for regional sustainable development. This study takes Guyuan City， Ningxia Province as the research area. Based on landscape type data from 2000 to 2020， we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of LER， applied Moran's I index to examine its spatial aggregation， and utilized the Geodetector technique and geographically weighted regression （GWR） model to identify the driving factors. The results indicate that： ① From 2000 to 2020， cropland was the dominant landscape type， with the most significant land transfer being the conversion of cropland to grassland. Forest land showed a general increasing trend， while water bodies， construction land， and unused land accounted for relatively small proportions but changed more rapidly. ② During the study period， the overall LER value exhibited a decreasing trend. The areas of high-risk and relatively high-risk categories decreased annually， whereas the areas of medium-risk， relatively low-risk， and low-risk categories increased significantly. High-risk and relatively high-risk areas were primarily transformed into medium-risk areas. Spatially， LER showed significant aggregation， mainly characterized by “high-high” and “low-low” clustering patterns. ③ LER in Guyuan City was co-influenced by natural and socioeconomic factors. Among single factors， NDVI had the greatest explanatory power （q-value reached 0.589 in 2020）. Regarding interaction effects， the interaction between NDVI and population density was the strongest （q = 0.728）. Among two-factor interactions， the interaction between rainfall and population density changed most noticeably， with the highest q-value in 2015 （0.497） and the lowest in 2020 （0.385）. NDVI primarily exerted an inhibitory effect on LER， while extreme climate and unfavorable topography contributed to increased LER. Socioeconomic factors mainly acted as positive drivers of LER in Yuanzhou District and Xiji County. The findings provide theoretical guidance for regional ecological conservation and urban construction， facilitating the synergistic development of landscape ecological risk patterns and promoting the improvement of ecological environment quality and sustainable regional economic development in Guyuan City. |
