| 苏南水网地区景观格局与生境质量时空演变及预测：以苏州吴江区为例 |
| 摘要点击 300 全文点击 4 投稿时间：2025-07-01 修订日期：2025-10-22 |
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| 中文关键词 景观格局 生境质量 时空演变 多情景模拟 苏南水网地区 |
| 英文关键词 landscape pattern habitat quality spatiotemporal evolution multi-scenario simulation water network area of southern Jiangsu |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507003 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 快速城镇化建设背景下，苏南水网地区生态保护和经济发展间的矛盾日益突出，研究选取具有典型水网地域特征的苏州吴江区为例，探究区域景观格局演变特征及生境质量时空演变及预测，揭示两者时空相关关系，为苏南水网景观配置优化和生态保护策略制定提供技术支持. 研究以2002年、2012年和2022年这3期土地利用数据为基础，利用景观格局指数和InVEST模型探究吴江区的景观格局与生境质量时空演变特征，运用PLUS模型对2032年自然发展、生态保护以及城镇发展多情景模拟，并预测景观格局与生境质量未来发展趋势，进一步揭示两者之间时空相关关系. 结果表明：①2002~2022年吴江区景观格局的破碎化程度显著增加，连通性下降，景观多样性提升；多情景预测显示，自然发展情景下景观格局变化较为平缓；生态保护情景下景观格局破碎化趋势得到控制，连通性增强；城镇发展下吴江区景观破碎化程度加剧，连通性明显下降，表明快速城镇化对区域景观格局的完整性构成较大威胁. ②2002~2022年吴江区生境质量均值下降0.146，呈现出南北低值区扩展、高值区缩减的空间异质性格局. 多情景预测表明，3种情景下生境质量均值较2022年均呈衰退现象，其中城镇发展情景下生境质量均值降至0.443，退化最为明显；生态保护情景下生境质量均值下降最小，保持相对稳定，表明生态保护措施有助于缓解生境退化、维持生态系统稳定性. ③不同景观格局指数对生境质量影响强度存在差异，相关性随城镇化的加深而进一步增强，且不同景观格局指数与生境质量在区域内呈多样化空间相关模式. 研究基于景观格局演变与生境质量变化分析，揭示其两者相关关系，为景观格局优化和生境质量提升提供理论参考，有助于地区生态环境保护和可持续发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land-use data from 2002， 2012， and 2022 were used to analyze changes in landscape patterns and habitat quality in Wujiang District of Suzhou. The PLUS model was applied to predict land-use change in 2032 under three scenarios： natural development， ecological protection， and urban development. Landscape pattern indices and the InVEST model were used to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of landscape patterns and habitat quality and to reveal their correlations. The results showed that from 2002 to 2022， landscape fragmentation increased significantly， connectivity declined， and landscape diversity rose. Under future scenarios， landscape change was moderate in the natural development case； fragmentation was alleviated， and connectivity improved under ecological protection； while urban development intensified fragmentation and reduced connectivity， indicating strong threats from rapid urbanization. Habitat quality declined by 0.146 from 2002 to 2022， with expanding low-value areas in the north and south and shrinking high-value areas. All three scenarios projected further degradation， with mean habitat quality dropping to 0.443 under urban development， the lowest among scenarios， while ecological protection showed the least decline and remained relatively stable. Different landscape pattern indices had varying impacts on habitat quality， and their correlations strengthened with urbanization. Spatial correlation patterns between indices and habitat quality also varied across the district. These findings highlight the relationship between landscape pattern evolution and habitat quality change， helping to identify key areas for ecological restoration and supporting future landscape optimization and ecological protection strategies in Wujiang District. |
