| 德兴市生态环境质量动态监测及其驱动因子分析 |
| 摘要点击 264 全文点击 3 投稿时间：2025-08-13 修订日期：2025-10-24 |
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| 中文关键词 改进遥感生态指数（MRSEI） 生态环境质量 XGBoost-SHAP模型 驱动因子 德兴市 |
| 英文关键词 modified remote sensing ecological index （MRSEI） eco-environmental quality XGBoost-SHAP model driving factors Dexing City |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202508129 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 对矿业城市开展生态环境质量长时序监测，并深入探究其驱动机制，对于推动区域绿色发展和生态环境保护具有重要意义. 构建融合土壤侵蚀与大气污染指标的改进遥感生态指数（MRSEI）以量化生态环境质量，结合Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和Hurst指数分析，系统评估2000~2023年德兴市生态环境质量的时空演变特征并预测其未来变化趋势. 进而借助XGBoost-SHAP模型识别影响MRSEI的外部驱动因子及其非线性作用，并进一步揭示内部指标因子对其的阈值效应. 结果表明：①德兴市生态质量等级总体以优、良和中等为主，其中等级为良的区域面积占比超过50%，以林地为主体；差和极差区域占比不足10%，集中于北部城镇与矿区. ②全域MRSEI整体呈先升后降趋势，东部和西部提升显著，北部城镇建成区和矿区显著下降，南部林地呈不显著下降. 84.39%的区域未来将延续当前变化趋势. ③林地面积占比是MRSEI最主要的正向驱动因子，城镇用地、耕地、裸地面积占比及人口密度则对其产生负向影响. ④2015~2023年间土壤侵蚀对MRSEI贡献增强，将侵蚀强度控制在1.07×103 t·（km2·a）-1以下是提高MRSEI水平的关键阈值. 德兴市未来应加强城镇与矿区边界管控，持续推进矿山生态修复，重点提升南部林地质量，以实现生态环境持续改善. 研究可为德兴市及其他矿业城市的生态环境监测、管理与保护工作提供相关参考与借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Long-term monitoring of ecological environmental quality in mining cities and the investigation of its driving mechanisms are of great significance for promoting regional green development and ecological protection. A modified remote sensing ecological index （MRSEI）， integrating indicators of soil erosion and air pollution， was constructed to quantify ecological environmental quality. The Theil-Sen Median trend analysis， Mann-Kendall significance test， and Hurst exponent analysis were used to assess the spatiotemporal patterns and future trends of ecological environmental quality in Dexing City from 2000 to 2023 and predict the future trend. Additionally， the XGBoost-SHAP model was employed to identify the dominant external driving factors of MRSEI and quantify their nonlinear effects， as well as to assess the threshold effects of its component indicators. The results showed that： ① The ecological environmental quality was predominantly rated as excellent， good， or moderate. Areas rated as “good” accounted for over 50% of the total area and were mainly distributed in forests， while areas rated as “poor” and “very poor” made up less than 10%， mainly concentrated in northern urban and mining zones. ② The MRSEI showed an overall trend of initial improvement followed by decline. Significant improvements were observed in the eastern and western regions， while substantial degradation occurred in northern urban and mining areas. The southern forested region exhibited a slight， non-significant decline. Approximately 84.39% of the area was projected to maintain its current MRSEI trend in the future. ③ Forest ratio was the most important positive driver of MRSEI， whereas urban land ratio， cropland ratio， bare land ratio， and population density had negative impacts. ④ From 2015 to 2023， the contribution of soil erosion on MRSEI increased. A soil erosion intensity below 1.07×103 t·（km2·a）-1 was identified as a critical threshold for improving ecological environmental quality. To promote long-term ecological improvement， this city should strengthen boundary control between urban and mining areas， continue ecological restoration of mines， and focus on enhancing forest land quality. The study aims to offer valuable references for the monitoring， management， and conservation of the ecological environment in Dexing City and other mining cities. |
