| 2000~2024年广东省植被NPP对极端气候的响应 |
| 摘要点击 334 全文点击 14 投稿时间：2025-08-28 修订日期：2025-11-14 |
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| 中文关键词 极端气候 净初级生产力（NPP） 时空变化 随机森林 Mann-Kendall检验 |
| 英文关键词 extreme climate net primary productivity（NPP） spatiotemporal variations random forest Mann-Kendall test |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202508295 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在全球气候变化背景下，极端气候事件频发对陆地生态系统影响深远. 基于植被净初级生产力（NPP）与地面气象观测数据，计算了27项极端气候指数，综合运用Theil-Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验与随机森林模型，系统揭示了广东省植被净初级生产力（NPP）对极端气候的响应规律. 结果表明，2000~2024年广东省植被NPP呈现波动上升趋势，增长速率为57.35 g·（m2·10 a）-1，多年平均值达1 018.51 g·m-2. 植被NPP显著增加区域占全省总面积的57.96%，主要分布在粤北和粤西地区；显著减少的区域仅占3.34%，零星分布于珠三角和粤东经济发达地区. 在极端气候方面，高温类指数呈明显上升趋势，低温类指数普遍呈下降趋势，夜间增温效应显著，昼夜增温呈现出不对称性；降水类指数年际变率较大，未呈现统计上显著的长期变化趋势，但多项指标表明极端降水事件强度增强、频率增加. 基于随机森林模型的特征重要性排序显示，气温类指数对广东省植被NPP的影响显著大于降水类指数，最高低温（TNx）和气温日较差（DTR）是影响NPP的最关键气候因子，其次为夏季天数（SU）、暖昼日数（TX90p）、温暖时间持续指数（WSDI）、暖夜日数（TN90p）、最高高温（TXx）、热夜天数（TR）、最低高温（TXn）和冷夜日数（TN10p）等8个极端温度指数. 在降水类指数中，仅最大干旱持续日数（CDD）对NPP表现出中等影响，其余降水指数作用相对较弱. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under the background of global climate change， the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Based on vegetation net primary productivity （NPP） and ground meteorological observation data， 27 extreme climate indices were calculated， and the response patterns of vegetation NPP to extreme climate in Guangdong Province were studied using Theil-Sen trend analysis， the Mann-Kendall test， and a random forest model. The results showed that the vegetation NPP in Guangdong Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2024， with a growth rate of 57.35 g·（m2·10 a）-1 and a multi-year average of 1 018.51 g·m-2. The significantly increased areas of vegetation NPP accounted for 57.96%， which were mainly distributed in northern and western Guangdong， while the significantly decreased areas accounted for only 3.34%， which were sporadically located in the Pearl River Delta and eastern Guangdong. In terms of extreme climate， high-temperature indices showed a clear upward trend， while low-temperature indices generally exhibited a declining trend. Nocturnal warming was particularly pronounced， revealing an asymmetric pattern of diurnal warming. For precipitation indices， although interannual variability was high， and no statistically significant long-term trend was observed， multiple indicators suggested an intensification in both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. The feature importance ranking based on the random forest model indicated that the impact of temperature indices on vegetation NPP in Guangdong Province was significantly greater than that of precipitation indices. Maximum daily minimum temperature （TNx） and daily temperature range （DTR） were the most critical climate factors affecting NPP， followed by summer days （SU）， warm day frequency （TX90p）， warm spell duration index （WSDI）， warm night frequency （TN90p）， maximum of daily maximum temperature （TXx）， number of tropical nights （TR）， minimum of daily maximum temperature （TXn）， and cold night frequency （TN10p）. Among the precipitation indices， only consecutive dry days （CDD） exhibited a moderate influence on NPP， while the effects of other precipitation indices were relatively weak. The impact of extreme climate indices on vegetation NPP showed significant spatial heterogeneity： The most critical factors were DTR and TNx in northern Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta， DTR and TXx in eastern Guangdong， and TNx and TN90p in western Guangdong. |
