| 基于时空网络的干旱区都市圈降碳-减污-扩绿-增长多维协同发展演化特征：以黄河“几字弯”都市圈为例 |
| 摘要点击 368 全文点击 10 投稿时间：2025-07-21 修订日期：2025-10-28 |
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| 中文关键词 环境治理 绿色发展 时空网络模型 干旱区都市圈 黄河流域 |
| 英文关键词 environmental governance green development spatiotemporal network models arid region urban agglomerations Yellow River Basin |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507278 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 崔许锋 | 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院, 土地经济研究中心, 武汉 430073 | cuixufeng06@163.com | | 吴宜纹 | 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院, 土地经济研究中心, 武汉 430073 | | | 吕婧 | 自然资源部国土整治中心, 北京 100035 | Lvjing@lcrc.org.cn | | 张光宏 | 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院, 土地经济研究中心, 武汉 430073 | | | 陈旻 | 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室, 南京 210023 | | | 王永生 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101 | | | 王鹏涛 | 西安外国语大学旅游学院, 人文地理研究所, 西安 710128 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 面对全球气候变化和环境污染挑战，中国积极推动可持续发展，将降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展作为重要目标.黄河“几字弯”都市圈作为典型的干旱区都市圈，面临着环境污染、生态脆弱和转型困难等问题.研究以黄河“几字弯”都市圈为研究区域，构建涵盖四大系统19项指标的综合评价体系，综合运用耦合协调度模型和时空网络分析方法，对2013~2022年该区域降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同水平的时空演变特征、空间关联网络及其形成机制进行解析.结果表明：①研究期内都市圈降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展水平整体稳步提升，达到协调等级的城市数量显著增加，区域东部协同发展水平高于西部，但区域差异逐步缩小；②研究期内降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同的区域空间关联网络密度从0.29增至0.54，形成以鄂尔多斯、榆林、呼和浩特、包头和太原等城市为核心的多中心网络结构，呈现功能互补与去单级中心化趋势；③通过聚类特征分析可知，降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同格局由“双溢出-净受益”演变为“多级溢出-单极受益”，呼和浩特、包头与太原组成的板块4成为主要受益区；④指数随机图模型（ERGM）进一步揭示，区域空间关联网络的形成受功能互补与空间邻近共同驱动，科技支出差异与地理距离分别为显著促进和抑制因素，且城市间的协同关系呈现显著的互惠性.研究旨在为推动干旱区都市圈协调发展提供科学依据和政策建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In response to global challenges of climate change and environmental pollution，China has been actively promoting sustainable development，with a key focus on synergizing carbon reduction，pollution reduction，green expansion，and growth. As a typical arid region metropolitan area，the Yellow River “Ji-shaped Bend” Urban Agglomeration faces issues such as environmental pollution，ecological fragility，and difficulties in transformation. This study establishes a comprehensive evaluation system comprising four major systems and 19 indicators for this region. By applying the coupling coordination degree model and spatiotemporal network analysis，it examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics，spatial correlation networks，and underlying mechanisms of the synergy level among carbon reduction，pollution reduction，green expansion，and growth from 2013 to 2022. The results indicate that：① During the study period，the overall synergistic development level of the urban agglomeration improved steadily，with a significant increase in the number of cities reaching coordination status. The eastern part of the region exhibited a higher synergy level than that of the western part，though regional disparities gradually narrowed. ② The density of the spatial correlation network for synergy increased from 0.29 to 0.54，showing a multi-layered and unbalanced structure. A polycentric network emerged， with cities such as Ordos，Yulin，Hohhot，Baotou，and Taiyuan as cores，reflecting functional complementarity and a trend toward de-monocentrization. ③ Cluster characteristic analysis revealed that the synergy pattern evolved from a “dual-spillover-net-benefit” structure to a “multi-spillover-single-pole-benefit” pattern. Block 4，consisting of Hohhot， Baotou，and Taiyuan，became the primary beneficiary area，indicating a significant restructuring of block roles and resource flows. ④ The Exponential Random Graph Model （ERGM）further demonstrated that the formation of the spatial correlation network was driven by both functional complementarity and spatial proximity，with differences in science and technology expenditure serving as a significant promoting factor and geographical distance as a constraining factor. Synergistic relationships among cities also exhibited clear reciprocity. This research aims to enhance the spatial correlation network for synergistic development and provide a scientific basis and policy recommendations for promoting coordinated development in such regions. |
