| 黄河流域减污-降碳-提韧耦合协同及其驱动因素非平稳性 |
| 摘要点击 342 全文点击 15 投稿时间：2025-08-23 修订日期：2025-11-12 |
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| 中文关键词 减污 降碳 提韧 耦合协同 驱动因素 时空非平稳性 |
| 英文关键词 pollution reduction carbon mitigation resilience enhancement coupling coordination driving factors spatiotemporal non-stationarity |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202508220 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 黄河流域在国家生态安全和经济高质量发展等方面承担着重要作用，探讨黄河流域减污、降碳和提韧的耦合协同水平及其影响因素，对于黄河流域实现高质量发展具有重要意义. 以黄河流域37个市州为研究区，基于“减污-降碳-提韧”框架（PR-CM-RE）构建评估体系，使用耦合协调度模型探究三系统的耦合协同水平，并采用地理探测器和时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型探测主要驱动因素及其时空非平稳性. 结果表明：①2013~2023年，黄河流域减污、降碳和提韧子系统发展水平分别提升0.449、0.297和0.530，且区域间存在较大差异；②2013~2023年，黄河流域减污-降碳-提韧系统耦合协调度由0.457提高至0.811，从濒临失调提升为良好协调；③城市人口密度、财政收入、一般工业固体废物综合利用量和化学需氧量排放量为三系统耦合协同的主要驱动因素，且都存在时空非平稳性，驱动方向和强度均有差异，研究结果可为推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供理论支持. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The Yellow River Basin plays a pivotal role in safeguarding national ecological security and promoting high-quality economic development. Investigating the coupling coordination level among pollution reduction， carbon emission mitigation， and economic resilience enhancement， along with its driving factors， holds significant importance for achieving high-quality development in the region. Taking 37 cities and prefectures in the Yellow River Basin as the research area， this study established an evaluation system based on the Pollution Reduction-Carbon Mitigation-Resilience Enhancement （PR-CM-RE） framework. The coupling coordination model was employed to examine the synergistic relationship among these three systems， while Geodetector and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression （GTWR） models were applied to identify key driving factors and their spatiotemporal non-stationarity. The results demonstrate that： ① From 2013 to 2023， the development levels of the pollution reduction， carbon mitigation， and resilience enhancement subsystems in the Yellow River Basin increased by 0.449， 0.297， and 0.530， respectively， with significant disparities observed across regions. ② The coupling coordination degree of the PR-CM-RE system increased from 0.457 to 0.811 during 2013-2023， transitioning from a state on the verge of imbalance to favorable coordination. ③ Urban population density， fiscal revenue， the comprehensive utilization of general industrial solid waste， and chemical oxygen demand emissions were identified as the main driving factors of the coupling and coordination among the three systems. All of these drivers exhibited spatiotemporal non-stationarity， with variations in both direction and intensity. The findings provide theoretical references for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. |
