| 京津冀地区县域碳排放时空变化及其影响因素 |
| 摘要点击 388 全文点击 19 投稿时间：2025-09-09 修订日期：2025-11-14 |
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| 中文关键词 碳排放 县域尺度 时空变化 最优参数地理探测器（OPGD） 京津冀 |
| 英文关键词 carbon emissions county-level scale spatiotemporal variation optimal parameters-based Geodetector （OPGD） Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202509114 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 厘清碳排放时空演变与驱动机制是落实差异化“双控”政策、推进区域“双碳”战略的科学前提. 基于2002~2022年京津冀地区199个县区的碳排放数据，并引入最优参数地理探测器（OPGD），从时间和空间这两个维度分析京津冀县域碳排放的分布格局和演变特征，并探查主要影响因子. 结果表明，2002~2022年京津冀地区碳排放量随时间总体波动上升，但增速在不断下降，年均增长率为5.08%；空间上，2002~2022年京津冀地区碳排放保持“东南高、西北低”的空间格局；全局Moran's I指数均为正值，表现出高度显著（P<0.01）的空间集聚性；并证实了植被覆盖度（FVC）和夜间灯光总量是影响碳排放变化的主要影响因子，且两个因子交互后的解释力最强. 从县域级入手，更准确地分析了京津冀地区2002~2022年21 a内碳排放的时空异质性及主要影响因素，可为京津冀各区县制定差异化减排政策提供量化依据，促进了区域协同降碳与高质量协同发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions is a scientific prerequisite for implementing differentiated dual-control policies and advancing regional dual-carbon strategies. Based on carbon emission data from 199 counties and districts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2002 to 2022 and incorporating the Optimal Parameters-based Geodetector （OPGD）， this study analyzes the spatial distribution patterns and evolution characteristics of county-level carbon emissions in the region from both temporal and spatial dimensions， while identifying key influencing factors. The results indicate that from 2002 to 2022， carbon emissions in the region fluctuated upward overall but at a decelerating rate， with an average annual growth rate of 5.08%. Spatially， the region maintained a “high in southeast， low in northwest” pattern from 2002 to 2022. The global Moran's I index consistently yielded positive values， indicating highly significant （P<0.01） spatial clustering. Vegetation cover （FVC） and total nighttime light intensity were confirmed as primary drivers of carbon emission changes， with their interaction demonstrating the strongest explanatory power. By adopting a county-level approach， this study provides a more precise analysis of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and key drivers of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the 21-year period from 2002 to 2022. It offers quantitative evidence for formulating differentiated emission reduction policies across counties and districts within the region， thereby promoting coordinated regional carbon reduction efforts and high-quality collaborative development. |
