| 环渤海城市群碳收支格局驱动因素及协调分区 |
| 摘要点击 329 全文点击 10 投稿时间：2025-07-01 修订日期：2025-10-29 |
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| 中文关键词 碳收支 时空格局 协调分区 最优参数地理探测器（OPGD） 环渤海城市群 |
| 英文关键词 carbon budget space-time pattern coordinated zoning optimal parameters-based Geodetector （OPGD） Bohai Rim Urban Agglomeration |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507001 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 环渤海城市群作为北方经济发展核心区，明晰其碳收支演变对区域低碳协同发展具有重要战略意义. 基于EDGAR资源及净生态系统生产力（NEP）数据，揭示了环渤海城市群市域尺度下2000~2023年碳收支格局，并测算了2001年、2012年和2023年的碳排放经济贡献系数（ECC）和碳生态承载系数（ESC），衡量其能源利用效率和碳汇能力，并利用最优参数地理探测器（OPGD）识别碳平衡空间分异性的主要驱动因素，最后融合国土空间规划中的主体功能区对环渤海城市群市域尺度进行碳平衡优化分区. 结果表明：①2000~2023年环渤海城市群碳排放表现为中间高四周低的分布格局，而碳吸收则呈北高南低的空间分布特征；OPGD结果显示，人均GDP（X5）和人口密度（X6）对碳收支的单因子解释力显著，且交互因子对碳收支影响程度相对于单个影响因子均有明显增强. ②ECC表现出先上升后下降的变化趋势，且呈现出高值区零散分布、低值区成片聚集的空间分布格局，而ESC则表现出北高南低的空间分布特征. ③基于ECC、ESC与主体功能区划的碳平衡分区显示，经济发展区-重点开发区覆盖较广，碳汇发展区-优化开发区集中于京津等市域，综合优化区-重点开发区市域数量有所增加. 研究结果为环渤海城市群低碳政策制定提供了理论支撑和决策依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As a pivotal economic development zone in northern China， the Bohai Rim urban agglomeration holds significant strategic importance for regional low-carbon synergistic development through clarifying the evolution of its carbon budget. Utilizing EDGAR datasets and net ecosystem productivity （NEP） data， this study reveals the carbon budget patterns at the municipal scale within the Bohai Rim region from 2000 to 2023. It calculates the economic contribution coefficient of carbon emissions （ECC） and ecological support capacity coefficient of carbon （ESC） for the years 2001， 2012， and 2023 to assess energy utilization efficiency and carbon sink capacity. Furthermore， the optimal parameters-based Geodetector （OPGD） is employed to identify key driving factors behind spatial differentiation in carbon balance. Finally， integrated with major function-oriented zones in territorial spatial planning， the study proposes optimized carbon balance zoning at the municipal scale across the Bohai Rim urban agglomeration. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2023， the carbon emissions of the Bohai Rim Urban Agglomeration presented a distribution pattern of being higher in the middle and lower in the surrounding areas， while the carbon absorption showed a spatial distribution feature of being higher in the north and lower in the south. The OPGD results indicated that per capita GDP （X5） and population density （X6） had significant single-factor explanatory power for the carbon balance， and the interaction factors had a significantly stronger influence on the carbon balance compared to that of individual factors. ② ECC exhibited a trend of rising first and then falling and presented a spatial distribution pattern of scattered high-value areas and concentrated low-value areas， while ESC showed a spatial distribution feature of being higher in the north and lower in the south. ③ The carbon balance zoning based on ECC， ESC， and the main functional zoning showed that the economic development area—key development area covered a wide area， while the carbon sink development area—optimized development area was concentrated in cities such as Beijing and Tianjin， and the comprehensive optimization area—key development area had an increasing number of city regions. The research results provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for the formulation of low-carbon policies in the Bohai Rim Urban Agglomeration. |
