| “双碳”背景下耕地利用转型对耕地碳排放的影响：以新疆为例 |
| 摘要点击 1268 全文点击 26 投稿时间：2025-09-01 修订日期：2025-11-06 |
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| 中文关键词 “双碳”目标 耕地利用显性转型 耕地利用隐性转型 耕地利用碳排放 新疆 |
| 英文关键词 “Dual Carbon” Goals explicit transformation of cultivated land use implicit transformation of cultivated land use carbon emissions from cultivated land use Xinjiang |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202509010 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 许红豆 | 新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830017
新疆大学绿洲生态自治区重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830017 | 107552301164@stu.xju.edu.cn | | 王宏卫 | 新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830017
新疆大学绿洲生态自治区重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830017 | wanghw@xju.edu.cn | | 黄鑫 | 新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830017
新疆大学绿洲生态自治区重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830017 | | | 王灿 | 新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830017
新疆大学绿洲生态自治区重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830017 | | | 王恒 | 新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830017
新疆大学绿洲生态自治区重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830017 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| “双碳”目标下，耕地利用转型为耕地利用低碳发展提供了新途径. 以新疆为例，构建耕地利用转型评价指标体系，综合运用最优地理探测器等方法，实证探究了耕地利用显性与隐性转型对耕地利用碳排放的影响. 结果表明：①2000~2020年间，新疆耕地利用显性与隐性转型指数均呈现“倒U型”的时序演变特征，于2015年达到峰值1.724和2.127；空间上则呈现出“西北高-东南低”的显著分异格局. ②新疆耕地利用碳排放时空演化与耕地利用转型进程高度耦合，2015年碳排放量达368.961万t，且农业生产集约化区域普遍对应较高的碳排放水平. ③耕地利用显性与隐性转型均对耕地利用碳排放产生了显著的影响效应，其中农业生产要素（如人均农作物播种面积等）解释力最强（q>0.5）；各影响因子间存在显著的双因子交互增强效应. 因此，未来应着力优化耕地空间布局，实施分区分类的差异化管控策略，协同推广低碳农业技术与模式创新. 在保障粮食安全的前提下，促进耕地利用效率提升与碳排放强度降低的协同优化，为区域及国家“双碳”目标的实现提供支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under the “Dual Carbon Goals，” the transition of cultivated land use has provided new pathways for low-carbon development in cultivated land utilization. Taking Xinjiang as an example， this study constructed an evaluation indicator system for cultivated land use transition and employed methods such as the optimal geographical detector to empirically investigate the impact of explicit and implicit transitions of cultivated land use on carbon emissions from cultivated land. The results indicated that： ① From 2000 to 2020， both the explicit and implicit transition indices of cultivated land use in Xinjiang exhibited an “inverted U-shaped” temporal evolution trend， peaking in 2015 at 1.724 and 2.127， respectively. Spatially， they showed a significant pattern of “higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast.” ② The spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions from cultivated land use in Xinjiang was highly coupled with the transition process of cultivated land use. In 2015， carbon emissions reached 3.689 million tons， with agriculturally intensive regions generally corresponding to higher carbon emission levels. ③ Both explicit and implicit transitions of cultivated land use significantly influenced carbon emissions， with agricultural production factors （such as per capita sown area of crops） exhibiting the strongest explanatory power （q > 0.5）. Significant interactive enhancement effects were observed among the influencing factors. Therefore， future efforts should focus on optimizing the spatial layout of cultivated land， implementing differentiated management strategies tailored to specific regions， and collaboratively promoting innovations in green low-carbon agricultural technologies and models. Under the premise of ensuring food security， synergistic optimization of cultivated land use efficiency and carbon emission reduction should be promoted to support the achievement of regional and national “Dual Carbon Goals.” |
