| 长江经济带景观生态风险时空演变及驱动力分析 |
| 摘要点击 490 全文点击 13 投稿时间：2025-04-15 修订日期：2025-10-21 |
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| 中文关键词 长江经济带 景观生态风险 Moran's I指数 空间自相关性分析 地理探测器 |
| 英文关键词 Yangtze River Economic Belt landscape ecological risk Moran's I index spatial autocorrelation analysis Geodetector |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504187 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 进行景观生态风险评价并探究驱动力因素，有助于为生态保护和高质量发展提供科学依据. 以长江经济带为研究区，基于2010年、2015年和2020年中国多时期土地利用遥感监测数据，构建基于景观格局指数的景观生态风险评估模型，结合土地利用分布对景观生态风险时空变化定量分析，探究区域内景观生态风险空间相关性和聚集模式，使用最优参数地理探测器，进一步探究影响因子的驱动力. 结果表明：①土地类型以耕地、林地和草地为主，2010~2015年土地利用类型转变占研究区总面积的0.77%，2015~2020年占总面积的29.80%，土地利用类型波动较大. ②景观生态风险以低、较低和中风险区为主，高风险区主要分布在长江三角洲、苏皖沿江平原、江汉平原、洞庭湖平原、鄱阳湖平原以及四川省西北部青藏高原山麓地带，长江中、下游景观生态风险较上游更高. ③风险变化在2010~2015年主要为较低风险转为低风险，2015~2020年景观生态风险向更高风险转移面积大于向更低风险转移面积，且风险等级变化幅度更大. 景观生态风险在空间分布上成正相关性，空间聚类格局较为稳定，高-高聚类先增后减，低-低聚类持续减少. ④人为干扰度、土地利用强度、NDVI和坡度是长江经济带景观生态风险的主要驱动因素，驱动因子两两交互解释力增强. 研究成果对研究区生态补偿优化和可持续发展规划具有重要意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Conducting landscape ecological risk assessment and exploring driving factors can provide scientific support for ecological protection and high-quality development. The Yangtze River Economic Belt was selected as the study area， and multi-temporal remote sensing land-use data from 2010， 2015， and 2020 was utilized to construct a landscape ecological risk assessment model employing landscape pattern indices. We conducted a land type distribution analysis to explore the temporal and spatial fluctuations in landscape ecological risks. The Moran index was utilized to examine the spatial correlation and clustering patterns of landscape ecological risks， while the optimal parameter Geodetector was applied to investigate the driving forces of impact factors. The results indicate：① Arable land， forests， and grasslands constituted the principal categories of land. Between 2010 and 2015， the region experiencing changes in land use constituted 0.77% of the whole research area； however， from 2015 to 2020， this region represented 29.80% of the total study area， signifying substantial variations in land use patterns. ② The principal levels of landscape ecological risk were low risk， lower risk， and medium risk. High-risk regions were predominantly located in the Yangtze River Delta， the Su-Wan Floodplain， the Jianghan Plain， the Dongting Lake Plain， the Poyang Lake Plain， and the foothills of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in northwestern Sichuan Province. The ecological hazards in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River exceeded those found in the upper reaches. ③ From 2010 to 2015， landscape ecological risk alterations were predominantly observed in lower-risk areas， which evolved into low ecological risk zones. The magnitude of these alterations was more pronounced in the higher reaches than in the middle and lower reaches. It was evident that between the years 2015 and 2020， the region exhibiting elevated risk levels surpassed that of reduced risks， and the magnitude of alterations in risk levels was more pronounced. The distribution of landscape ecological risk demonstrated a positive spatial association， characterized by a generally consistent spatial clustering pattern. Initially， high-high clustering rose before declining， whereas low-low clustering persisted in its decline. ④ The level of human disturbance， land use intensity， NDVI， and slope have been identified as significant determinants of landscape ecological risk in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The explanatory power of pairwise interactions between driving factors was enhanced. The results of the research are of significance for the optimization of ecological compensation and sustainable development planning in the study area. |
