| 基于FLUS-InVEST模型的黑河流域三生空间生境质量演变及多情景模拟预测 |
| 摘要点击 600 全文点击 11 投稿时间：2025-08-11 修订日期：2025-10-10 |
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| 中文关键词 三生空间 生境质量（HQ） FLUS-InVEST模型 时空格局 黑河流域 |
| 英文关键词 Production Living Ecological Spaces habitat quality（HQ） FLUS-InVEST model spatial and temporal pattern Heihe River Basin |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202508108 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 杨鸿魁 | 中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021
祁连山中部亚高山生态系统野外科学观测研究站, 张掖 734000
青海师范大学地理科学学院, 西宁 810008 | 1456711871@qq.com | | 李业 | 中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021 | 49451460@qq.com | | 马玉欣 | 中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021 | | | 祁万强 | 中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021
祁连山中部亚高山生态系统野外科学观测研究站, 张掖 734000 | | | 杨明新 | 中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021
祁连山中部亚高山生态系统野外科学观测研究站, 张掖 734000 | | | 欧立鹏 | 中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021 | 787296146@qq.com |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 研究三生空间生境质量演变时空格局，对于掌握区域生态现状和可持续发展具有实际意义. 以黑河流域1990~2023年8期土地利用数据为基础对三生空间类型进行划分. 基于FLUS-InVEST模型和GIS平台，通过耦合11个驱动要素来模拟预测黑河流域2035年生产空间优先、生活空间优先和生态空间优先发展等3种情景下的三生空间及生境质量时空分布格局. 结果表明：①1990~2023年黑河流域农业生产空间面积净增1 184.23 km2，主要来自未利用地和草地的转入；水域生态用地面积增幅达20.96%；林、草地生态用地面积分别减少167.04 km2和606.31 km2；②1990~2023年黑河流域生境质量年际变化率为-0.013%·a-1. 较高质量和高质量区主要向中等质量和较低质量区发生转移，面积减少786.15 km2，其重心分别向北西和北东迁移17.61 km和21.66 km；低质量区面积增加7 178.28 km2，低质量区重心向中上游绿洲区迁移52.77 km；③较2020年，2035年生产空间优先情景中林地和草地面积分别减少了271.23 km2和800.71 km2；生活空间优先发展下，城镇生活空间显著增加，林地和草地生态用地面积持续减少；生态空间优先发展下林地面积增加17.76 km2. 该情景下草地面积减少幅度最低；④2035年生产、生活和生态空间优先发展情景的HQ均值分别为0.376 9、0.377 1和0.381 5. 其中，生产和生活两种情景的HQ较2020年降幅分别为1.13%和1.08%. 主因在于较高质量和高质量区面积的减少. 而生态优先情景下，高质量区面积增加234.70 km2，HQ较2020年和其他两种情景增幅分别为0.08%、1.22%和1.17%. 研究结果可为黑河流域生态治理和未来三生空间的协调发展提供多视角参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Studying the spatio-temporal pattern of the evolution of the quality of the Production Living Ecological Spaces in the Heihe River Basin is of practical significance for understanding the current ecological situation and promoting sustainable development in the region. This study classifies the Production Living Ecological Spaces based on the land use data of the Heihe River Basin from 1990 to 2023. Using the FLUS-InVEST model and GIS platform and coupling 11 driving factors， it simulates and predicts the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the Production Living Ecological Spaces and their habitat quality under the three scenarios of production space priority， living space priority， and ecological space priority in 2035. The results show that： ① From 1990 to 2023， the area of agricultural production space in the Heihe River Basin increased by 1 184.23 km2， mainly due to the conversion of unused land and grassland； the area of water ecological land increased by 20.96%； and the areas of forest and grassland ecological land decreased by 167.04 km2 and 606.31 km2， respectively. ② From 1990 to 2023， the annual change rate of habitat quality in the Heihe River Basin was -0.013%·a-1. High-quality and very high-quality areas mainly transferred to medium-quality and low-quality areas， with a reduction of 786.15 km2 in area. Their centers of gravity moved 17.61 km to the northwest and 21.66 km to the northeast， respectively； the area of low-quality areas increased by 7 178.28 km2， and the center of gravity of low-quality areas moved 52.77 km towards the oasis area in the middle and upper reaches. ③ Compared with those in 2020， in the production space priority scenario in 2035， the areas of forest and grassland decreased by 271.23 km2 and 800.71 km2， respectively， under the living space priority development scenario， and the area of urban living space increased significantly， while the areas of forest and grassland ecological land continued to decrease. Under the ecological space priority development scenario， the area of forest land increased by 17.76 km2. The decrease in grassland area was the smallest in this scenario. ④ In 2035， the average HQ values of the Production Living Ecological Spaces priority development scenarios were 0.376 9， 0.377 1， and 0.381 5， respectively. Among them， the HQ values of the Production Living Ecological Spaces priority scenarios decreased by 1.13% and 1.08% compared with those in 2020， mainly due to the reduction in the area of high-quality and very high-quality areas. However， under the ecological space priority scenario， the area of high-quality areas increased by 234.70 km2， and the HQ value increased by 0.08%， 1.22%， and 1.17% compared with that in 2020 and the other two scenarios， respectively. The research results can provide multi-perspective references for ecological governance and the coordinated development of the Production Living Ecological Spaces in the Heihe River Basin in the future. |
