| 耦合SD-PLUS模型的山东省土地利用演变及多情景动态模拟 |
| 摘要点击 554 全文点击 14 投稿时间：2025-06-12 修订日期：2025-09-25 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用转型 驱动因素 系统动力学 PLUS模型 可持续发展 |
| 英文关键词 land use transformation driving factors system dynamics PLUS model sustainable development |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506143 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用多情景模拟研究可为区域国土空间优化与资源配置提供理论支持. 基于山东省2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据，结合13项驱动因子，建立了惯性发展、耕地保护、生态保护和经济发展4种约束情景. 耦合系统动力学（SD）模型和斑块级土地利用变化模拟（PLUS）模型，预测并分析了山东省2030年的土地利用变化趋势及驱动机制. 结果表明：①惯性发展情景下，建设用地显著增加5 232.36 km2，耕地面积减少5 363.11 km2，农业用地向建设用地转化呈加速趋势. 而耕地保护情景下，耕地占比显著提高，达到了69.19%，在4种情景中占比最高；②生态保护情景强调对林地、草地和水域等自然生态系统的保护与恢复，促进林地、草地、水域分别增加938.02、1 027.43和983.81 km2，但耕地面积减少4 226.47 km2；而经济发展情景导致建设用地扩张至占比26.33%（净增6 835.61 km2）并引发耕地减少6 488.91 km2；③驱动机制分析揭示GDP和人口密度对建设用地扩张的联合贡献率达42.3%，DEM和坡度对生态用地分布的主导作用超过35%. 模型验证表明，SD模块历史模拟误差低于8%（耕地误差仅0.27%），PLUS模块Kappa系数达0.8，模拟精度显著优于单一模型. 通过设置对比4种情景，研究结果可为未来土地利用规划与管理提供科学依据和决策支持. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Multi-scenario simulation of land use can provide theoretical support for regional land space optimization and resource allocation. Based on the land use data of Shandong Province in 2000， 2010， and 2020， combined with 13 driving factors， four constraint scenarios of inertial development， cultivated land protection， ecological protection， and economic development were established. The land use change trend and driving mechanism of Shandong Province in 2030 were predicted and analyzed by the coupling system dynamics （SD） model and patch-level land use change simulation （PLUS） model. The results showed that： ① Under the inertial development scenario， the construction land increased significantly by 5 232.36 km2， the cultivated land area decreased by 5 363.11 km2， and the conversion of agricultural land to construction land showed an accelerating trend. Under the scenario of cultivated land protection， the proportion of cultivated land increased significantly， reaching 69.19%， which was the highest in the four scenarios. ② The ecological protection scenario emphasized the protection and restoration of natural ecosystems such as forest land， grassland， and waters and promoted the increase of forest land， grassland， and waters by 938.02， 1 027.43， and 983.81 km2， respectively， but the area of cultivated land was reduced by 4 226.47 km2. The economic development scenario led to the expansion of construction land to 26.33% （a net increase of 6 835.61 km2） and the reduction of cultivated land by 6 488.91 km2. ③ The driving mechanism analysis revealed that the combined contribution rate of GDP and population density to the expansion of construction land was 42.3%， and the leading role of DEM and slope on the distribution of ecological land was more than 35%. The verification of the model showed that the historical simulation error of the SD module was less than 8% （the cultivated land error was only 0.27%）， the Kappa coefficient of the PLUS module was 0.8， and the simulation accuracy was significantly better than that of the single model. By setting and comparing the four scenarios， the research results can provide scientific basis and decision support for future land use planning and management. |
