| 黄河流域降碳减污扩绿协同发展的时空格局及影响因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 886 全文点击 18 投稿时间：2025-07-09 修订日期：2025-09-12 |
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| 中文关键词 黄河流域 降碳减污扩绿 核密度估计 地理探测器 影响因素 |
| 英文关键词 Yellow River Basin carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and green expansion kernel density estimation Geodetectors key factors |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507113 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 协同推进降碳减污扩绿是黄河流域实现“双碳”目标和生态文明战略的重要抓手，厘清降碳减污扩绿三者协同水平的时空格局及影响因素是政策制定的基础. 在厘清降碳减污扩绿增长三者协同推进良性互馈关系基础上，以黄河流域54个地级市为研究对象，构建降碳-减污-扩绿复合系统的综合评价体系，利用三维空间矢量模型测度协同发展水平；通过核密度估计方法刻画协同发展动态演进；结合地理探测器解析协同发展影响因素. 结果表明：①黄河流域协同发展水平呈上升趋势，同时区域异质性明显，上游城市协同水平高于中游城市，下游最低；非资源型城市协同水平高于资源型城市. ②不同地区降碳减污扩绿协同水平差距变大，全流域两极分化逐渐增强，黄河流域降碳减污扩绿协同推进仍面临较大的结构性和根源性压力，且区域间发展的不平衡性问题较为突出. ③城镇化率与第三产业占比是黄河流域降碳减污扩绿协同发展的核心驱动要素，而人均GDP、第二产业占比和科学技术水平则属于辅助性影响因素. 研究解构了黄河流域降碳减污扩绿协同发展水平、动态演化趋势和影响因素，为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供了政策制定依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The collaborative promotion of carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion is an important method for achieving the "dual carbon" goals and ecological civilization strategy in the Yellow River Basin. Clarifying the spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of the synergy level of carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion is the basis for policy formulation. On the basis of clarifying the synergistic and mutually beneficial relationship between carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion growth， a comprehensive evaluation system for the carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion composite system was constructed using 54 prefecture level cities in the Yellow River Basin as the research object. The level of collaborative development was measured using a three-dimensional space vector model， describing the dynamic evolution of collaborative development through kernel density estimation methods， and combining Geodetectors to analyze the influencing factors of collaborative development. The results show that： ① The level of coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin was on the rise， while regional heterogeneity was evident. The level of coordination among upstream cities was higher than that among midstream cities， while downstream cities had the lowest level. The collaborative level of non-resource-based cities was higher than that of resource-based cities. ② The gap in the collaborative level of carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion in different regions widened， and the polarization of the entire basin was gradually increasing. The coordinated promotion of carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion in the Yellow River Basin still faces significant structural and fundamental pressures， and the problem of uneven development between regions is more prominent. ③ The urbanization rate and the proportion of the tertiary industry were the core driving factors for the coordinated development of carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion in the Yellow River Basin， while per capita GDP， the proportion of the secondary industry， and the level of science and technology were auxiliary influencing factors. The article studies and deconstructs the level， dynamic evolution trend， and influencing factors of coordinated development of carbon reduction， pollution reduction， and green expansion in the Yellow River Basin， providing policy basis for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. |
