| 工业主导型城市碳排放情景模拟及减排路径：以兰州市为例 |
| 摘要点击 846 全文点击 17 投稿时间：2025-06-25 修订日期：2025-10-09 |
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| 中文关键词 LEAP模型 碳排放 能源消费 碳达峰 减排潜力 |
| 英文关键词 LEAP model carbon emissions energy consumption peak carbon dioxide emissions emission reduction potential |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506302 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）构建了兰州市产业碳排放预测模型，系统分析了2023~2060年间不同政策情景下的碳排放演变路径. 以2023年为基准年，设定了基准情景、产业结构优化情景、能源转型情景和蓝图情景这4种政策情景，通过量化模拟揭示了兰州市实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的可行路径. 结果显示，在无政策干预的基准情景下，兰州市能源消费量将呈现持续增长态势，从2023年的34.3×106 t增至2060年的59.7×106 t，碳排放量从64.4×106 t攀升至81×106 t，难以实现预期的碳达峰目标. 实施减排政策后，产业结构优化、能源转型及蓝图情景均于2029年达峰，峰值分别为69×106、72.9×106和68.2×106 t. 减排贡献率结果显示，产业结构优化在短期内贡献40%的减排量，但长期贡献率降至22%；能源结构转型的贡献率则从11%稳步上升至30%；蓝图情景通过政策协同维持48%~49%的减排贡献率，凸显多维减排策略的有效性. |
| 英文摘要 |
| A carbon emission prediction model for Lanzhou's industries was established based on the long-term energy alternatives planning system （LEAP）， and the evolution paths of carbon emissions under different policy scenarios from 2023 to 2060 were systematically analyzed. Taking 2023 as the base year， four policy scenarios were set： the base scenario， the industrial structure optimization scenario， the energy transition scenario， and the blueprint scenario. Through quantitative simulation， the feasible paths for Lanzhou to achieve its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals were revealed. The results show that in the base scenario without policy intervention， Lanzhou's energy consumption will continue to grow， increasing from 34.3×106 t in 2023 to 59.7×106 t in 2060， and carbon emissions will rise from 64.4×106 t to 81×106 t， making it difficult to achieve the expected carbon peaking target. After implementing emission reduction policies， the industrial structure optimization， energy transition， and blueprint scenarios will peak in 2029， with peak values of 69×106 t， 72.9×106 t， and 68.2×106 t， respectively. The results of the emission reduction contribution rate showed that industrial structure optimization contributed 40% of the emission reduction in the short term， but the long-term contribution rate dropped to 22%； the contribution rate of energy structure transformation steadily increased from 11% to 30%； and the blueprint scenario maintained an emission reduction contribution rate of 48%-49% through policy coordination， highlighting the effectiveness of multi-dimensional emission reduction strategies. |
