| 中国省域建筑业碳排放效率与减排潜力的互动关系 |
| 摘要点击 870 全文点击 10 投稿时间：2025-05-07 修订日期：2025-09-27 |
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| 中文关键词 中国省域 建筑业 碳排放效率（CEE） 碳减排潜力（CRP） PVAR模型 |
| 英文关键词 provinces of China construction industry carbon emission efficiency（CEE） carbon reduction potential（CRP） PVAR modeling |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505017 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 建筑业作为中国第二大碳排放源和减排潜力的行业，研究建筑业碳排放效率和减排潜力对于中国实现“双碳”目标具有重要的理论和现实意义. 运用非期望产出超效率SBM模型测算2010~2021年中国建筑业碳排放效率（CEE），基于“公平-效率”双重视角构建碳减排潜力指数，测算2010~2021年中国建筑业碳减排潜力（CRP），并运用Dagum基尼系数和标准差椭圆分析碳减排潜力的空间差异与重心变化，最后借助PVAR模型进一步剖析建筑业碳排放效率与减排潜力之间的互动关系. 结果显示：①建筑业碳排放效率呈“N”型下降，具体为东部>中部>全国>西部的空间分异格局. ②建筑业碳减排潜力先呈“M”型下降后波动下降，具体为东部>全国>西部>中部的空间分异格局，多数省域碳减排潜力挖掘空间较大. ③全国、中部和西部地区建筑业碳减排潜力基尼系数整体波动上升，差异逐渐变大；东部地区呈“M”型下降，差异变小；且差异主要来源由区域间差异转变成超变密度. ④标准差椭圆重心主要向东南转移，整体呈现收敛趋势，在特定方向上呈现出差异化的空间结构. 整体分布方向由“东北-西南”转变成“东南-西北”走向，后又变回至“东北-西南”走向. ⑤全国和中部碳排放效率与减排潜力为负向动态关系，东部和西部为单向关系. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As the second largest carbon emitter and a sector with significant potential for carbon reduction in China， the construction industry plays a pivotal role in achieving the country's “dual carbon” goals. This study adopts the non-discretionary output super-efficiency SBM model to evaluate the carbon emission efficiency （CEE） of China's construction industry from 2010 to 2021. From the dual perspective of “fairness-efficiency，” a carbon reduction potential index is developed to quantify the carbon reduction potential （CRP） of China's construction industry during the same period. The Dagum Gini coefficient and standard deviation ellipse are employed to analyze spatial disparities and shifts in the center of gravity of carbon reduction potential. Finally， the PVAR model is used to further investigate the interactive relationship between carbon emission efficiency and carbon reduction potential in the construction industry. The findings indicate that： ① The carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry exhibited an “N”-shaped decline， with a spatial differentiation pattern characterized by eastern > central > national > western regions. ② The carbon reduction potential of the construction industry initially followed an “M”-shaped decline and subsequently fluctuated downward， with a spatial differentiation pattern of eastern > national > western > central regions. Most provincial areas possessed substantial carbon reduction potential. ③ The Gini coefficient of carbon reduction potential in the national， central， and western regions generally showed an upward fluctuation trend， indicating increasing disparities； in the eastern region， it demonstrated an “M”-shaped decline， reflecting decreasing disparities. The primary source of differences transitioned from inter-regional disparities to super-density variation. ④ The center of gravity of the standard deviation ellipse primarily shifted southeastward， revealing an overall convergence trend and presenting a differentiated spatial structure in specific directions. The overall distribution direction evolved from "northeast-southwest" to "southeast-northwest" and then reverted to “northeast-southwest.” ⑤ A negative dynamic relationship existed between carbon emission efficiency and carbon reduction potential in the national and central regions， whereas in the eastern and western regions， it manifested as a one-way relationship. |
