| 中国四大城市群碳排放的时空演化与影响因素 |
| 摘要点击 1066 全文点击 43 投稿时间：2025-06-27 修订日期：2025-09-28 |
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| 中文关键词 碳排放 能源消费 时空演化 影响因素 融合夜间灯光指数 城市群 |
| 英文关键词 carbon emissions energy consumption spatiotemporal evolution driving factors integrated nighttime light index urban agglomerations |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506331 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标引导下，深入揭示中国主要城市群碳排放的时空演化特征与驱动因素具有重要意义. 基于多源遥感数据构建融合夜间灯光指数与能源统计数据反演2000~2022年京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝四大城市群的碳排放，并结合碳排放强度与人均碳排放探讨其时空演变特征与区域差异. 同时采用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）分解法探讨碳排放驱动因素的变化规律. 结果表明，四大城市群碳排放总量整体呈现快速增长后增速放缓的演变趋势；碳排放空间格局由核心城市高密度集聚向周边扩散但区域内部排放趋于均衡；碳排放强度普遍下降，长三角与珠三角下降幅度平稳，京津冀降幅显著但碳排放强度水平持高；人均碳排放水平随经济发展呈现多样化演变特征，长三角和京津冀整体经历跨区间转变，珠三角始终保持在较低区间且变化平稳，成渝则表现出在区间内较大的波动；经济增长仍为碳排放增长的主要动力，人口规模效应减弱，工业能源效率提升和产业结构优化为重要抑制因素，能源结构调整贡献逐步显现. 综上，四大城市群碳排放演化体现出增长减缓、空间扩散与区域异质性并存的趋势，未来应因地施策强化低碳转型路径的协同推进. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Guided by the national strategic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality， it is of great significance to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in China's major urban agglomerations. Based on the integrated nighttime light index and energy statistical data， this study estimates the carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH）， Yangtze River Delta （YRD）， Pearl River Delta （PRD）， and Chengdu-Chongqing （CC） urban agglomerations from 2000 to 2022. By analyzing carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions， the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and regional disparities are explored. Furthermore， the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） decomposition method is employed to explore the dynamic changes of the influencing factors. The results reveal that total carbon emissions in the four urban agglomerations experienced rapid growth in the early stage， followed by a noticeable slowdown. Spatially， carbon emissions expanded from densely concentrated core cities to surrounding regions， with intra-regional emissions gradually becoming more balanced. Emission intensity generally showed a downward trend， with steady declines in the YRD and PRD regions and a more significant decrease in the BTH Region， although it continued to maintain a relatively high level. Per capita carbon emissions demonstrated diversified trajectories along with economic development： The YRD and BTH regions underwent inter-quartile transitions， while the PRD Region maintained a low and stable level， and the CC region exhibited greater internal variability. Economic growth remained the primary driver of carbon emission increases， whereas the effect of population scale had weakened. Improvements in industrial energy efficiency and the optimization of industrial structure played a major role in curbing emissions， and the contribution of energy structure adjustment had become increasingly prominent. In summary， the evolution of carbon emissions in China's four major urban agglomerations was characterized by decelerated growth， spatial diffusion， and persistent regional heterogeneity. To promote a low-carbon transition， region-specific and coordinated strategies should be strengthened moving forward. |
