| 资源枯竭转型城市碳汇时空变化特征及驱动因素分析：以徐州市为例 |
| 摘要点击 936 全文点击 34 投稿时间：2025-07-24 修订日期：2025-10-09 |
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| 中文关键词 净生态系统生产力（NEP） 碳汇 时空变化 驱动因素 资源枯竭转型城市 |
| 英文关键词 net ecosystem productivity （NEP） carbon sink spatiotemporal changes driving factors resource-exhausted transition cities |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507324 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 生态修复与绿色转型发展是资源枯竭型城市固碳增汇的重要途径，定量评估其碳汇能力及其驱动因素，对于深入理解区域碳循环及驱动机制、优化生态修复方式及助力实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义. 以典型资源转型城市徐州市为例，利用改进的CASA模型、土壤呼吸模型、趋势分析与Hurst指数、参数最优地理探测器（OPGD）和偏相关分析等方法，揭示资源转型发展过程中净生态系统生产力（NEP）的时空变化特征、驱动因素及未来发展趋势. 结果表明：①2000~2022年徐州市NEP呈波动上升趋势，空间分布为“中间低，四周高”的特征，总体已实现由碳源向碳汇的转变. ②变化趋势上，2011~2022年NEP变化显著，显著增强趋势的面积增加了28.21%（P<0.05），且未来碳汇能力仍将持续增强. ③影响NEP空间异质性的因子解释力差异明显，但多因子交互作用强度显著上升. 植被占比（q=0.49）和建设用地占比（q=0.47）对NEP空间异质性的解释力最大，生态修复因子的解释力不断增强. ④未来应建立生态修复治理与碳汇效能提升的协同机制，加强自然-人为因子交互作用和生态环境的可持续性，防范城市空间无序扩张导致的生态碳汇能力衰减风险. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Ecological restoration and green transformation of resource-exhausted cities are vital pathways for carbon sequestration and sink enhancement. The quantitative evaluation of carbon sink capacity and its driving factors is essential for deepening the understanding of regional carbon cycling and its driving mechanisms， optimizing ecological restoration strategies， and advancing China's “dual-carbon” goals. In this study， we selected Xuzhou， a city transitioning from resource dependence， as our case study and employed an improved CASA model， soil respiration regression equations， slope trend analysis， Hurst index， optimal parameter Geodetector （OPGD）， and partial correlation analysis to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics， driving factors， and future trajectories of net ecosystem productivity （NEP） during Xuzhou's transition away from resource dependence. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2022， NEP in Xuzhou exhibited a fluctuating upward trend and displayed a spatial pattern of “low in the center， high in the periphery，” transitioning from a carbon source to a carbon sink. ② During 2011-2022， NEP increased significantly， and the area exhibiting a significant upward trend expanded by 28.21% （P < 0.05）； the carbon-sink capacity was projected to continue strengthening. ③ The explanatory power of individual drivers of NEP spatial heterogeneity differed markedly， while the intensity of multi-factor interactions rose significantly. Vegetation cover fraction （q=0.49） and built-up land proportion （q=0.47） exhibited the strongest explanatory power for the spatial heterogeneity of NEP， and the explanatory power of ecological restoration factors has been steadily increasing. ④ Future efforts should focus on establishing a synergistic mechanism that integrates ecological-restoration governance with carbon sink enhancement， strengthening the interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors， ensuring ecological sustainability， and averting the risk of carbon sink decline caused by uncontrolled urban expansion. |
