| 基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector模型的云南红河流域碳储量时空演变及驱动机制 |
| 摘要点击 984 全文点击 60 投稿时间：2025-06-19 修订日期：2025-09-27 |
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| 中文关键词 碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 地理探测器 云南红河流域 |
| 英文关键词 carbon storage PLUS model InVEST model Geodetector Honghe River Basin of Yunnan Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506234 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探讨土地利用对区域碳储量的影响及其空间驱动要素，对提高区域生态系统碳汇、优化国土空间具有重要意义. 以云南红河流域为例，耦合PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector模型探究2000~2020年土地利用变化、碳储量的空间演变规律及其碳储量驱动成因，并预测2040年4种情景（自然发展、耕地保护、碳汇提升和水资源保护）下土地利用和碳储量演变趋势. 结果表明：①云南红河流域土地利用类型以耕地、林地和草地为主，分别占比约17%、62%和20%. 2000~2010年间土地转移最为剧烈，其转移面积高达3 410.52 km2；②2000~2020年间，云南红河流域碳储量整体呈现出“西部高，东中部低”的特征，碳储量累计损失4.28×106 t；③在自然发展情景和耕地保护情景下，碳储量分别为1 483.75×106 t和1 480.60×106 t，较2020年碳储量分别减少了4.71×106 t和7.86×106 t. 在碳汇提升情景和水资源保护情景下，碳储量分别为1 488.68×106 t和1 489.62×106 t，较2020年碳储量分别增加了0.22×106 t和1.16×106 t. ④NDVI（0.108 5）、土壤侵蚀强度（0.068 5）和土壤类型（0.058 2）等是碳储量空间分异的主导因子，其双因子交互作用强于单一因子，其中协同效应最强的是NDVI∩土壤类型（0.147 3）. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the impact of land use on regional carbon storage and its spatial driving factors is of great significance for enhancing regional ecosystem carbon sinks and optimizing territorial space. This study takes the Honghe River Basin in Yunnan Province as an example， couples the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model to deeply investigate the spatial evolution patterns of land use and carbon storage and their spatial driving causes from 2000 to 2020， and predicts and analyzes the evolution trends of land use and carbon storage in 2040 under four scenarios （natural development， farmland protection， carbon sink enhancement， and water resource protection）. The results are as follows： ① In the Honghe River Basin of Yunnan Province， the land use was dominated by cultivated land， forest， and grassland， accounting for approximately 17%， 62%， and 20%， respectively. The period from 2000 to 2010 saw the most intense land use change， with a total transition area of 3 410.52 km2. ② From 2000 to 2020， the carbon storage in the Honghe River Basin of Yunnan Province generally presented a pattern of “high in the west and low in the east and middle，” with a cumulative loss of 4.28×106 t. ③ Under the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario， carbon storage amounted to 1 483.75×106 t and 1 480.60×106 t， respectively， decreasing by 4.71×106 t and 7.86×106 t compared to the 2020 level. In contrast， the carbon sink enhancement scenario and the water resource protection scenario resulted in carbon storage of 1 488.68×106 t and 1 489.62×106 t， representing an increase of 0.22×106 t and 1.16×106 t relative to that in 2020. ④ NDVI （0.108 5）， soil erosion intensity （0.068 5）， and soil type （0.058 2） were the dominant factors influencing the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage. The interaction effects between any two factors were stronger than those of individual factors， with the most significant synergistic effect observed for the interaction between NDVI and soil type （0.147 3）. |
