| 基于SHAP-XGBoost模型的黄河三角洲陆地生态系统碳储量可解释性驱动分析 |
| 摘要点击 1277 全文点击 110 投稿时间：2025-05-12 修订日期：2025-10-15 |
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| 中文关键词 碳储量 土地利用 InVEST模型 SHAP-XGBoost模型 驱动分析 |
| 英文关键词 carbon storage land use InVEST model SHAP-XGBoost model driving analysis |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505105 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 马志龙 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 黄河三角洲水土资源保护和高质量发展特色实验室, 济南 250358 | 2622163617@qq.com | | 韩美 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 黄河三角洲水土资源保护和高质量发展特色实验室, 济南 250358 | hanmei568568@126.com | | 孔祥伦 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 黄河三角洲水土资源保护和高质量发展特色实验室, 济南 250358 | | | 孙金欣 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 黄河三角洲水土资源保护和高质量发展特色实验室, 济南 250358 | | | 张缤 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 黄河三角洲水土资源保护和高质量发展特色实验室, 济南 250358 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 生态系统碳储量作为气候变化的指示器，探究碳储量时空演变特征及驱动机制可为应对气候变化提供自然解决方案. 基于1980~2020年黄河三角洲5期土地利用数据，利用InVEST模型分析黄河三角洲陆地生态系统碳储量时空分异特征，耦合CA-Markov模型预测黄河三角洲2030年和2060年自然发展和生态保护这2种情景下陆地生态系统碳储量，最后利用SHAP-XGBoost模型对其碳储量时空演变进行可解释性驱动分析. 结果表明：①1980~2020年土地利用类型变化显著，建设用地增加503.40 km2，耕地和水域面积则分别损失123.47 km2和313.18 km2，林地、草地等生态用地和未利用地所占比例较小且呈下降趋势. ②1980~2020年碳储量分别为52.88 ×106、76.77×106、36.92×106、32.71×106和49.94×106 t，自然发展情景下2030年和2060年碳储量分别为41.92×106 t和41.21×106 t， 生态保护情景下2030年和2060年碳储量分别为51.24×106 t和60.33×106 t，表明生态保护能够显著提升陆地生态系统碳储量水平. ③1980~2020年碳储量时空演变主要驱动力为距高速距离、距铁路距离和NDVI，年均温与碳储量相互关系较为复杂，总体呈正向作用. 研究结果可为黄河三角洲陆地生态系统修复与治理提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Ecosystem carbon storage is an indicator of climate change. Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of carbon storage can provide natural solutions to climate change. Based on the five-period land use data of the Yellow River Delta from 1980 to 2020， the InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Yellow River Delta. The CA-Markov model was coupled to predict the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in the Yellow River Delta under the two scenarios of natural development and ecological protection in 2030 and 2060. Finally， the SHAP-XGBoost model was used to explain the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon storage. The results showed that： ① From 1980 to 2020， the land use types changed significantly. The construction land increased by 503.40 km2， while the cultivated land and water area lost 123.47 km2 and 313.18 km2， respectively. The proportion of ecological land and unused land such as forest land and grassland was small and showed a downward trend. ② From 1980 to 2020， the carbon stocks were 52.88×106， 76.77×106， 36.92×106， 32.71×106， and 49.94×106 t， respectively. Under the natural development scenario， the carbon stocks in 2030 and 2060 were 41.92×106 t and 41.21×106 t， respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario， the carbon stocks in 2030 and 2060 were 51.24×106 t and 60.33×106 t， respectively， indicating that ecological protection could significantly increase the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. ③ The main driving forces of the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon storage from 1980 to 2020 were the distance from high speed， distance from railway， and NDVI. The relationship between annual average temperature and carbon storage was more complex， and the overall effect was positive. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the restoration and management of terrestrial ecosystems in the Yellow River Delta. |
