| 未来气候情景下天山北坡经济带生态安全格局演变 |
| 摘要点击 878 全文点击 9 投稿时间：2025-05-22 修订日期：2025-09-18 |
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| 中文关键词 生态安全格局 气候变化 生态系统服务（ESs） 形态学空间格局分析（MSPA） 电路理论 |
| 英文关键词 ecological security pattern climate change ecosystem services（ESs） morphological spatial pattern analysis （MSPA） circuit theory |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505238 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究并明晰气候变化对生态安全格局的作用机制，是维护生态安全的有效措施. 基于此，以天山北坡经济带为研究区域，基于第六阶段耦合模型比较计划（CMIP6）的SSP1-1.9、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5典型气候情景，首先利用斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型（PLUS模型），模拟2060年不同气候情景下的土地利用演变，在此基础上应用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型（InVEST模型）评估产水量、土壤保持量、生境质量和碳储量这4项关键生态系统服务，并结合形态空间格局分析（MSPA）与斑块重要性指数（DPC）识别生态源地；再以层次分析法（AHP）确定土地利用、地形、生境质量和气候因子等7项指标的权重构建生态阻力面，最后基于电路理论提取生态廊道和生态节点. 结果表明，未来3个气候情景下：①生态源地分布南多北少，南密北疏，集中分布于天山北麓的林地与草地. 2020年为76 807 km2，2060年SSP245情景微减至75 979 km2，稳定性最强. SSP585情景源地降至66 904 km2，破碎化程度最高. SSP119情景扩张至80 031 km2且连通性最优. ②生态廊道在中部变化激烈，东部退化明显. 在SSP245情景下廊道总长度最长，增加至4 509 km. 在SSP585情景下退化严重，廊道总长缩减21.7%，数量反增10条，形成“量增质降”破碎生态网络. SSP119情景廊道总长3 592 km，微增5.4%，数量减少至81条，生态廊道分布结构优化，连通性提升最为明显，凸显生态保护成效. ③生态夹点在3个情景下均呈现“广泛分布，中部和东部密集，西部稀疏”特征，个数及面积均有不同程度地增加. 在SSP585情景增加最为剧烈，个数增幅达235%，面积增加15.91 km2. 生态障碍点集中分布在东部，面积在未来3个情景均出现减少，但在SSP585情景仍保持着较大面积分布. 综合上看，SSP245及SSP119情景下源地与廊道网络得以扩展和强化，反映低排放有利于生态稳固，而SSP585情景则导致源地面积减少、生态阻力加强，廊道分散，生态安全格局脆弱性上升. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Investigating and clarifying the mechanisms by which climate change influences ecological security patterns is an effective measure for maintaining ecological security. Based on this， the study region selected is the Tianshan North Slope Economic Belt， utilizing three typical climate scenarios from the sixth coupled model intercomparison project （CMIP6）： SSP1-1.9， SSP2-4.5， and SSP5-8.5. First， the patch-generated land use change simulation model （PLUS model） was used to simulate land use evolution under different climate scenarios by 2060. Based on this， the integrated assessment model for ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST model） was applied to assess four key ecosystem services： water production， soil conservation， habitat quality， and carbon storage. Additionally， morphological spatial pattern analysis （MSPA） and the patch importance index （DPC） were employed to identify ecological source. Next， the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was used to determine the weights of seven indicators， including land use， topography， habitat quality， and climate factors， to construct an ecological resistance surface. Finally， ecological corridors were extracted based on circuit theory. The results indicate： ① Ecological source areas were spatially distributed with more in the south and fewer in the north， denser in the south and sparser in the north， concentrated in the forested and grassland areas north of the Tianshan Mountains. In 2020， the area was 76 807 square kilometers， and in the SSP245 scenario by 2060， it slightly decreased to 75 979 square kilometers， showing the highest stability. Under the SSP585 scenario， the source area decreased to 66 904 square kilometers， with the highest degree of fragmentation. Under the SSP119 scenario， it expanded to 80 031 square kilometers with the best connectivity. ② Under the SSP245 scenario， the total length of ecological corridors reached its maximum， increasing to 4 509 kilometers. Under the SSP585 scenario， degradation was severe， with the total length of corridors decreasing by 21.7%， while the number of corridors increased by 10， resulting in a fragmented ecological network characterized by “increased quantity but decreased quality.” Under the SSP119 scenario， the total length of corridors was 3 592 kilometers， a slight increase of 5.4%， with the number of corridors decreasing to 81. The distribution structure of ecological corridors was optimized， with the most significant improvement in connectivity， highlighting the effectiveness of ecological conservation efforts. ③ Ecological pinch points increased in all three scenarios， with the most dramatic increase occurring in the SSP585 scenario， in which the number of hotspots increased by 235%， and the area increased by 15.91 square kilometers. The area of ecological barriers decreased in all three scenarios but remained large in the SSP585 scenario. Through SSP scenario comparisons， it was found that under the low-carbon scenario， source areas and corridor networks were expanded and strengthened， indicating that low emissions are beneficial for ecological stability； however， under the high-emission scenario， source area sizes decreased， ecological resistance increased， corridors became fragmented， and the vulnerability of the ecological security pattern rose. |
