| 耦合生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险的甘肃省生态分区识别 |
| 摘要点击 540 全文点击 10 投稿时间：2025-07-14 修订日期：2025-09-21 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用模拟 生态系统服务价值（ESV） 景观生态风险（LER） 生态分区 甘肃省 |
| 英文关键词 land use simulation ecosystem service value（ESV） landscape ecological risk（LER） ecological zoning Gansu Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507183 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 耦合生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险对甘肃省开展生态分区识别，对准确识别快速城市化带来的生态环境问题、提升区域生态安全和实现可持续发展目标具有重要意义. 基于PLUS模型模拟自然发展、生态保护、经济发展和建设规划情景下甘肃省2030年土地利用格局. 采用修正价值当量法评估生态系统服务价值，结合景观干扰度与脆弱度模型计算景观生态风险，并通过经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关分析识别甘肃省生态分区. 结果表明：①生态保护与建设规划情景分别提升生态系统服务价值的1.28%和1.54%. 其中，建设规划情景下的水资源供给功能增幅最高，达到3.19%. ②景观生态风险呈现“西北低-东南高”的空间分异特征，高风险区集中在陇东黄土高原和河西绿洲边缘，其景观破碎度与人类活动强度显著正相关. ③甘肃省生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险的空间聚类以西北部低价值-低风险，东南部高价值-高风险为主. 研究发现整合生态保护的规划发展策略可有效协调甘肃省生态服务供给与风险承载的矛盾，可为其生态空间规划提供有效支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Coupling ecosystem service value （ESV） with landscape ecological risk （LER） for ecological zoning in Gansu Province is of significant importance for accurately identifying ecological and environmental problems arising from rapid urbanization， enhancing regional ecological security， and achieving sustainable development goals. The PLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Gansu Province in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development， ecological protection， economic development， and construction planning. We adopted the modified value equivalent method to evaluate ESV， combined landscape disturbance and vulnerability models to calculate LER， and identified ecological zones in Gansu Province through empirical Bayesian modified spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results indicate that： ① Ecological protection and construction planning scenarios increased ESV by 1.28% and 1.54%， respectively. Notably， the increase in water resource supply function under the construction planning scenario was the highest， reaching 3.19%. ② LER presented a spatial differentiation feature of “low in the northwest and high in the southeast，” with high-risk areas concentrated on the Loess Plateau in eastern Gansu and the edge of oases in Hexi. The degree of landscape fragmentation was significantly positively correlated with human activity intensity. ③ The spatial clustering of ESV and LER in Gansu Province was mainly based on low value low risk in the northwest and high value high risk in the southeast. Research has found that integrating ecological protection planning and development strategies can effectively coordinate the contradiction between ecological service supply and risk carrying in Gansu Province， providing effective support for its ecological spatial planning. |
