| 中国西北地区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的非线性影响及阈值效应 |
| 摘要点击 477 全文点击 8 投稿时间：2025-05-27 修订日期：2025-09-14 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值（ESV） 非线性影响 阈值效应 西北地区 |
| 英文关键词 land use/cover change（LUCC） ecosystem service value（ESV） nonlinear impact threshold effect Northwest China |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505305 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 西北地区作为我国重要的生态屏障，其脆弱的生态系统对土地利用变化具有高度敏感性，探究土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）与生态系统服务价值（ESV）的关系对区域生态保护与可持续发展具有重要意义. 以西北地区为研究对象，基于2008~2023年土地利用数据，运用空间统计方法系统解析土地利用时空演变规律，通过修正后的当量因子法和地理探测器对ESV进行评估并揭示其时空分异特征和驱动因素，采用增强回归树（BRT）模型定量辨识不同土地利用类型比例变化对ESV的非线性影响机制，并明确其关键阈值效应. 结果表明：①研究期间，西北地区整体土地利用结构较为稳定，建设用地增加明显，其面积增长了9 941.85 km2，主要由耕地和草地转化而来. ②ESV时间上呈现出先下降后上升的趋势，空间上呈“东南高西北低”的格局，与土地利用类型密切相关，不同等级呈现集聚分布. ③ESV空间异质性受自然与社会经济因素共同驱动，其中土地利用强度贡献最大，所有驱动因子的交互作用均表现为增强效应，土地利用强度与各因子的交互解释力尤为突出. ④林地、草地和未利用地为影响山地系统ESV的关键土地利用类型，未利用地、水域和耕地为影响绿洲系统和荒漠系统ESV的关键土地利用类型. ⑤关键土地利用类型比例对ESV存在显著阈值效应，为维持ESV处于中等以上水平，各系统用地比例需满足以下条件：山地系统需林地21.56%~98.99%、草地61.07%~98.99%、未利用地3.03%~11.39%；绿洲系统需水域3.75%~98.99%、未利用地1.01%~28.01%、耕地3.03%~14.22%；荒漠系统需水域0.97%~98.99%、未利用地1.01%~74.39%、耕地0.00%~4.03%. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As a crucial ecological barrier in China， the fragile ecosystems in Northwest China exhibit high sensitivity to land use changes. Therefore， investigating the relationship between land use/cover change （LUCC） and ecosystem service value （ESV） is of great significance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Using Northwest China as the study area， this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of land use based on land use data from 2008 to 2023 using spatial statistical methods. The ESV was assessed using a modified equivalent factor method and geodetector to reveal its spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors. A boosted regression tree （BRT） model was employed to quantitatively identify the nonlinear impact mechanisms of proportional changes in different land use types on the ESV and determine their critical threshold effects. The results indicated the following： ① During the study period， the overall land use structure in Northwest China remained relatively stable. Construction land showed the most significant increase， expanding by 9 941.85 km2， and was primarily converted from cultivated land and grassland. ② ESV exhibited an initial decline followed by a rising trend over time. Spatially， it displayed a pattern of “higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest，” closely correlated with land use types， with different ESV grades showing clustered distribution. ③ The spatial heterogeneity of ESV was jointly driven by natural and socio-economic factors. Land use intensity contributed the most among the drivers. All factor interactions exhibited enhancing effects， with the interaction between land use intensity and other factors being particularly prominent in explanatory power. ④ Forest land， grassland， and unused land were identified as the key land use types influencing ESV in the mountain system. Unused land， water bodies， and cultivated land were the key factors affecting the ESV in the oasis and desert systems. ⑤ The proportion of key land use types exhibited a significant threshold effect on ecosystem service value （ESV）. To maintain ESV at a medium or higher level， the land use proportions in each system must meet the following conditions： For the mountain system， forest land should account for 21.56%-98.99%， grassland for 61.07%-98.99%， and unused land for 3.03%-11.39%； for the oasis system， water area should account for 3.75%-98.99%， unused land for 1.01%-28.01%， and cultivated land for 3.03%-14.22%； and for the desert system， water area should account for 0.97%-98.99%， unused land for 1.01%-74.39%， and cultivated land for 0.00%-4.03%. |
