| 河北省生态系统服务供需时空演变与SSP-RCP情景预测 |
| 摘要点击 560 全文点击 6 投稿时间：2025-07-20 修订日期：2025-08-18 |
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| 中文关键词 生态系统服务供需 供需匹配 SSP-RCP情景 时空变化 河北省 |
| 英文关键词 supply and demand of ecosystem services supply and demand matching SSP-RCP scenario temporal and spatial changes Hebei Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507256 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 京津冀地区作为中国核心经济圈之一，在快速城市化进程中面临生态系统服务需求急剧攀升的挑战. 城市扩张、人口集聚与产业升级导致水资源、碳汇能力、土壤保持及生物栖息地等生态资源压力持续加大，区域生态管理失衡与可持续发展矛盾日益凸显. 科学评估并精准预测生态系统服务供需动态，成为破解区域生态安全与可持续发展难题的关键突破口. 利用SD-PLUS耦合模型预测未来河北省土地利用需求，基于InVEST模型、空间赋值法等方法评价河北省历史与未来时期水源涵养（WY）、碳储存（CS）、土壤保持（SC）和生境质量（HQ）的供需演变规律，运用生态系统服务供需比揭示河北省2000~2070年4种生态系统服务供需匹配时空格局，提出河北省生态系统服务供需平衡优化建议. 结果表明，不同SSP-RCP情景下河北省土地利用需求具有明显差异性，但是对耕地与水域需求均减少，对建设用地需求均明显增加. 过去20 a间河北省水源涵养供需量均有下降，土壤保持供需量均呈现增长趋势，碳储存供给量减少而需求量增加，生境质量供需则保持相对稳定，未来3种不同情景下4种生态系统服务供需变化基本延续各自过去20 a间变化趋势. 2000~2020年河北省生态系统服务供需匹配具有时空异质性，且生态系统服务供需错配显著，在未来不同情景下供需匹配失衡加剧. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As one of the core economic circles in China， the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is confronted with the challenge of a sharp increase in the demand for ecosystem services during the rapid urbanization process. Urban expansion， population concentration， and industrial upgrading have led to a continuous increase in the pressure on ecological resources such as water resources， carbon sink capacity， soil retention， and biological habitats. The imbalance in regional ecological management and the contradiction between sustainable development have become increasingly prominent. Scientifically assessing and accurately predicting the dynamics of supply and demand for ecosystem services has become a key breakthrough in solving the problems of regional ecological security and sustainable development. The SD-PLUS coupling model was used to predict the land use demand in Hebei Province in the future. The supply and demand evolution laws of water conservation （WY）， carbon storage （CS）， soil conservation （SC）， and habitat quality （HQ） in the historical and future periods of Hebei Province were evaluated based on methods such as the InVEST model and spatial assignment method. The spatio-temporal patterns of supply and demand matching of four types of ecosystem services in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2070 were revealed by using the supply-demand ratio of ecosystem services， and suggestions for optimizing the balance of supply and demand of ecosystem services in Hebei Province were put forward. The results showed that there were significant differences in land use demand in Hebei Province under different SSP-RCP scenarios. However， the demand for cultivated land and water areas decreased， while the demand for construction land increased significantly. Over the past two decades， both the supply and demand of water conservation in Hebei Province have declined， while the supply and demand of soil conservation have shown an increasing trend. The supply of carbon storage has decreased， while the demand has increased. The supply and demand of habitat quality have remained relatively stable. In the future， the changes in the supply and demand of the four ecosystem services under the three different scenarios will basically continue the trends of the past two decades. Between 2000 and 2020， Hebei Province exhibited spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the matching of ecosystem service provision and requirement， accompanied by a significant supply-demand mismatch. The imbalance of supply and demand matching will intensify in different scenarios in the future. |
