| 黄河“几字弯”生态系统服务时空演变的权衡协同关系及驱动因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 1008 全文点击 8 投稿时间：2025-06-19 修订日期：2025-09-02 |
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| 中文关键词 黄河“几字弯” 生态系统服务（ESs） 权衡协同 斯皮尔曼系数 偏最小二乘回归 |
| 英文关键词 Jiziwan of the Yellow River ecosystem services （ESs） trade-offs and synergies Spearman coefficient partial least squares regression |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506228 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 深入了解黄河“几字弯”地区生态系统服务时空演变特征、权衡协同关系及其驱动机制，对于实现生态保护和高质量发展协同具有重要意义. 基于InVEST模型、NDVI及修正风蚀方程，评估黄河“几字弯”2001~2020年产水量、土壤保持量、碳储量、粮食产量和防风固沙这5项生态系统服务，并构建生态系统服务综合指数（ESSI）以刻画其时空演变特征. 采用斯皮尔曼秩相关系数分析生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系，结合偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）识别自然环境与人类活动因子对ESSI的双向影响. 结果表明：①2001~2020年间，生态系统服务整体向好发展，产水量由5.97×109 m3增至1.25×1010 m3，土壤保持量由4.34×108 t提升至5.96×108 t，碳储量稳定维持在4.20×109 t；粮食产量由3.33×106 t增长至1.08×107 t. 相较之下，防风固沙量则由7.30×107 t下降至4.00×107 t，生态系统供给与调节能力呈现普遍增强，但防风固沙服务显著下降的趋势. ②服务之间以协同关系为主，产水量、土壤保持量与碳储量之间的相关系数长期高于0.85，而粮食产量与碳储量之间的相关性较弱（平均值仅为0.199 9）. 但在地级市尺度上服务间关系呈现出空间差异，如乌海市固碳与防风固沙为协同关系（0.192），而榆林市则呈权衡关系（-0.076）. ③ESSI的演变受降水、气温、NDVI、人口密度及夜间灯光指数等共同驱动，降水与NDVI为主要正向因子，高强度人类活动则对部分生态系统服务产生负面影响. 研究结果可为黄河“几字弯”地区生态系统服务优化配置与差异化生态治理提供理论支持. |
| 英文摘要 |
| A comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics， trade-offs and synergies， and driving mechanisms of ecosystem services in the Jiziwan of the Yellow River is crucial for achieving synergy between ecological protection and high-quality development. This study evaluated five key ecosystem services—water yield， soil retention， carbon storage， food production， and wind erosion control—across the period 2001-2020 using the InVEST model， the normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI）， and the revised wind erosion equation. An integrated ecosystem services supply index （ESSI） was constructed to characterize the overall spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem functions. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was employed to analyze the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services， while partial least squares regression was used to explore the bidirectional influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on ESSI. The results show that： ① From 2001 to 2020， overall ecosystem service levels improved. Water yield increased from 5.97 to 12.5 billion m3， soil retention rose from 434 million tons to 596 million tons， carbon storage remained stable above 4.20 billion tons， and food production increased from 3.33 to 10.8 million tons. In contrast， wind erosion control declined markedly from 73 to 40 million tons， indicating enhanced provisioning and regulating services but a significant decrease in sand fixation capacity. ② Synergistic relationships dominated among most services， especially between water yield， soil retention， and carbon storage （Spearman coefficients consistently higher than 0.85）. The correlation between food production and carbon storage was weak （average value of only 0.199 9）. Notable spatial differences emerged at the prefectural level. For example， Wuhai City exhibited a synergistic relationship （rs=0.192） between carbon sequestration and wind erosion control， while Yulin City showed a trade-off （rs =-0.076）. ③ ESSI dynamics were jointly driven by climate change （precipitation density and temperature）， vegetation cover （NDVI）， and human activities （population density and nighttime light index）， with precipitation and NDVI acting as major positive drivers， while the intensity of human activities exerted negative impacts on some services. These findings provide a scientific basis for optimizing ecosystem service allocation and implementing differentiated ecological governance in the Jiziwan of the Yellow River. |
