| 长江经济带农业“土-能-粮-碳”耦合网络演化特征及驱动因素 |
| 摘要点击 474 全文点击 8 投稿时间：2025-07-15 修订日期：2025-09-19 |
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| 中文关键词 农业“土-能-粮-碳” 耦合网络 TERGM模型 驱动因素 长江经济带 |
| 英文关键词 agricultural “land-energy-grain-carbon” coupling network TERGM model driving factors Yangtze River Economic Belt |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507198 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于构建的长江经济带农业“土-能-粮-碳”耦合系统指标体系，通过修正的耦合协调度模型测算2011~2022年各省份“土-能-粮-碳”耦合协调水平，使用社会网络分析方法探讨其空间关联网络的结构特征，并运用动态指数随机图模型（TERGM）探究耦合网络演化的驱动因素. ①2011~2022年长江经济带农业“土-能-粮-碳”耦合协调水平稳步上升，呈现“两头高、中间低”的空间分布格局，区域差距不断缩小. ②长江经济带农业“土-能-粮-碳”耦合关联强度存在区域不均衡性和空间地理邻近性；耦合网络的关联关系呈先升后降的发展态势，并形成了以下游区域为中心，中游和上游区域为边缘的“中心-边缘”网络结构. ③长江经济带农业“土-能-粮-碳”耦合网络演化受互惠性、传递闭合性及多连通性的驱动，包含时间依赖关系的延迟互惠性和变异性同样显著. 此外，财政支农水平、农业科技创新、绿色技术创新、农业环境规制和地理距离均对耦合网络的形成和演化有重要影响. 长江经济带农业“土-能-粮-碳”耦合协调发展区域差异明显，但整体向好，耦合网络演化受内生效应和外生效应的共同驱动. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the multidimensional evaluation indicator system of the agricultural “land-energy-grain-carbon” in the Yangtze River Economic Belt， this study calculates the coupling coordination levels of “land-energy-grain-carbon” in each province from 2011 to 2022 using the revised coupling coordination model. It discusses the structural characteristics of the spatial association network using social network analysis and explores the driving factors of the coupling network evolution using the dynamic exponential random graph model （TERGM）. ① From 2011 to 2022， the coupling coordination level of the agricultural “land-energy-grain-carbon” in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has been steadily improved， exhibiting a distinct spatial pattern with higher values at both ends and lower values in the middle region， while regional disparities gradually narrowed. ② There was a regional imbalance and spatial geographical proximity in the coupling correlation intensity of the agricultural “land-energy-grain-carbon” in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The correlation relationship of the coupling network showed a development trend of rising first and then falling and formed a “center-edge” network structure with the downstream region as the center and the midstream and upstream regions as the edges. ③ The evolution of the “land-energy-grain-carbon” coupling network in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was driven by reciprocity， transitivity， and multi-connectivity. The delayed reciprocity and variability， which included time-dependent relationships， were also significant. Additionally， the fiscal support level for agriculture， agricultural technological innovation， green technological innovation， agricultural environmental regulation， and geographical distance all had important impacts on the formation and evolution of the coupling network. The coupling coordination development of "land-energy-grain-carbon" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed significant regional differences but was generally improving. The coupling network evolution was driven by both endogenous and exogenous effects. |
