| 安徽界首高新技术产业开发区的零碳园区建设分析与预测 |
| 摘要点击 752 全文点击 6 投稿时间：2025-05-27 修订日期：2025-09-12 |
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| 中文关键词 零碳园区 碳排放 LEAP模型 减排路径 情景预测 |
| 英文关键词 zero-carbon industrial park carbon emissions LEAP model emission reduction pathway scenario prediction |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505295 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 以安徽界首高新技术产业开发区为研究对象，通过分析园区近5 a（2019~2023年）碳排放现状，结合对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）模型分析驱动因素，并基于长期能源替代规划（LEAP）模型设置基准（S1）、现有政策（S2）和强化减排（S3）这3种情景预测碳排放演变，系统探讨零碳园区建设路径. 结果表明，近5 a园区碳排放总量仍处于增长阶段，主要源于电力消耗（占比为84.48%）及高能耗产业（有色金属冶炼、电气机械制造等）；经济发展效应是碳排放增长的核心驱动力，能源强度与结构优化则呈现抑制作用；LEAP预测显示，强化减排情景（S3）下产业园区可在2030年实现碳达峰（57.46万t），并于2040年前后趋近碳中和；而基准情景（S1）下碳排放持续增长，难以实现“双碳”目标. 最后结合园区特点提出相关建议，可为零碳园区建设提供理论依据与实践路径，并为同类园区低碳转型提供参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Taking the Anhui Jieshou High-Tech Industrial Development Zone as the research object， we analyzed the current carbon emissions of the park in the past five years （2019-2023）， combining the logarithmic Mean Di Index （LMDI） model to analyze the driving factors， and forecasting emission trajectories under three scenarios （baseline S1， policy-driven S2， and enhanced mitigation S3） via the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System （LEAP） model. The results showed that the total carbon emissions of the park in the past five years have still been in the growth stage， mainly due to power consumption （accounting for 84.48%） and high energy-consuming industries （such as non-ferrous metal smelting， electrical machinery manufacturing， etc.）. The economic development effect was the core driving force for the growth of carbon emissions， while energy intensity and structural optimization showed inhibitory effects. LEAP's forecast indicated that under the Enhanced Emission Reduction Scenario （S3）， industrial parks could achieve carbon peaking （574，600 tons） by 2030 and approach carbon neutrality around 2040. Under the benchmark scenario （S1）， carbon emissions continued to increase， failing to achieve the “dual carbon” goals. Finally， tailored to the park's features， the study proposes recommendations establishing a theoretical framework and actionable pathways for zero-carbon industrial parks， while offering references for the low-carbon transition of similar industrial parks. |
