| 减污降碳双约束下江苏省电力行业清洁低碳转型路径 |
| 摘要点击 493 全文点击 8 投稿时间：2025-05-27 修订日期：2025-09-21 |
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| 中文关键词 减污降碳 清洁低碳转型 电力行业 目标规划模型 煤电退减 |
| 英文关键词 reduce pollution and carbon clean and low-carbon transition electric power industry goal programming model coal power reduction |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505298 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在经济快速发展的背景下，江苏省面临改善生态环境质量与实现碳达峰碳中和的双重战略任务，电力行业作为主要碳排放和污染物排放源，其清洁低碳转型至关重要. 选取江苏省为研究对象，以2025~2060年为时间区间，在基准政策情景（BAU）和两种政策加强情景（STE1、STE2）下，以电力供给总成本最小为目标，在满足减污降碳双约束条件下，构建目标规划模型，通过优化发电结构寻求电力行业最优转型路径. 结果表明：①不同情景下的电力供给成本演化呈现显著差异，BAU情景的总成本最低；STE2情景最高，主要表现在末端成本高，减排进程缓慢；STE1情景前期成本高但后期回落，清洁能源占比高. ②能源结构差异特征凸显，BAU情景煤电占比平缓降至2.4%，形成传统与清洁能源协同过渡格局；STE1情景清洁能源占比超65%，但系统稳定性面临挑战；STE2情景煤电保留23.8%，能够维持供电韧性，但清洁能源占比较低. ③煤电退出速度与碳捕集成本呈负相关. BAU情景煤电平缓淘汰，碳捕集成本居中；STE1情景煤电快速淘汰，碳捕集成本基本归零；STE2情景延缓煤电退出，碳捕集成本最高. 研究结果可为推动江苏省电力行业清洁低碳转型提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Against the backdrop of rapid economic development， Jiangsu Province is confronted with the dual strategic tasks of enhancing ecological environment quality and achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. As a major source of carbon and pollutant emissions， the clean and low-carbon transformation of the power industry is of critical significance. Jiangsu Province is taken as the research object in this study， with the time frame spanning from 2025 to 2060. Under the baseline policy scenario （BAU） and two policy strengthening scenarios （STE1 and STE2）， a goal programming model is constructed， with the minimization of the total cost of the electricity supply as the objective， while the dual constraints of pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction are satisfied. Through the optimization of the power generation structure， the optimal transformation path for the power industry is explored. The results are as follows： ① The evolution of power supply costs under different scenarios was characterized by significant differences. The total cost was the lowest in the BAU scenario， while it was the highest in the STE2 scenario， mainly due to high terminal costs and a slow reduction process. The cost was high in the early stage but dropped in the later stage in the STE1 scenario， with a high proportion of clean energy. ② The characteristics of differences in the energy structure were prominent. In the BAU scenario， the proportion of coal power gradually decreased to 2.4%， forming a pattern of coordinated transition between traditional and clean energy； in the STE1 scenario， the proportion of clean energy exceeded 65%， but the system stability faced challenges； and in the STE2 scenario， coal power was retained at 23.8%， which could maintain power supply resilience， but the proportion of clean energy was relatively low. ③ The speed of coal power exit and the cost of carbon capture showed an inverse correlation. In the BAU scenario， coal power was gradually phased out， and the cost of carbon capture was moderate； in the STE1 scenario， coal power was rapidly phased out， and the cost of carbon capture was basically zero； and in the STE2 scenario， the exit of coal power was delayed， and the cost of carbon capture was the highest. Scientific references for promoting the clean and low-carbon transformation of the power industry in Jiangsu Province can be provided by the research results. |
